The US’ joint strikes with Israel on Iran dismantled a key pillar of China’s regional strategy, removing an important piece in Beijing’s potential Taiwan Strait scenario, said Zineb Riboua, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Middle East Peace and Security.
In an article titled: “The Iran Question Is All About China,” Riboua said that understanding the Iran issue in the context of China’s “grand strategy” is essential to fully grasp the complexity of the situation.
Beijing has spent billions of dollars over the years turning Iran into a “structural strategic asset,” diverting US military resources in the Pacific region, she said.
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Oil is the starting point of the entire relationship, Riboua said, adding that China purchases 90 percent of Iran’s exported crude oil and uses “ghost fleets” to help Tehran evade sanctions.
Since 2021, the two sides have accumulated more than US$140 billion in trade, which has not only made Iran highly dependent on Chinese capital, but also granted Beijing lasting influence in one of the world’s most important energy corridors, she said.
Iran’s strategic value to China extends beyond economics into proxy conflicts, she said.
In late 2023, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeted shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade and forcing the US military to spend heavily on interceptions, with each missile costing US$1 million to US$4 million, she said.
“Every dollar the United States spends defending Red Sea shipping lanes is a dollar unavailable for submarine production, Pacific basing, or Taiwan contingency planning,” she said.
Iran’s threat has also allowed China to deepen its ties with Gulf countries, she said, adding that as Beijing’s influence in the region grows, these countries would be less likely to align with the US on issues such as Taiwan, chip export controls or financial sanctions.
The US’ “Epic Fury” operation highlights Washington’s recognition that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is eroding its deterrence in the Pacific, she said.
“Iran is where Beijing’s Middle East architecture is most concentrated and most vulnerable,” she said.
Targeting Iran would effectively remove a key piece from Beijing’s Taiwan Strait scenario, preventing the Middle East from becoming a secondary front in China’s broader plan, she said.
“[US President Donald] Trump’s strikes are the first move by an American president who appears to understand that the road to the Pacific runs through Tehran,” she added.
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