With artificial intelligence (AI) models improving typhoon path forecasts, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) would continue cooperating with Nvidia and National Taiwan University (NTU) to use AI to more accurately predict wind and rain levels, the agency said yesterday.
Errors in tracking typhoon paths have gone down by an average of 2.7 percent annually from 2000 to last year, the CWA said.
These forecasts noticeably improved last year, with errors in 24-hour forecasts for typhoon paths 12 percent lower than in 2024, it said.
Photo courtesy of the Central Weather Administration
The errors were 68km in 2023, 65km in 2024 and fell to 57km last year, it said.
The CWA has invested NT$1.5 billion (US$47.5 million) to develop a cutting-edge sixth-generation computer using chips from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
The computers have 200,000 times the processing power of the third generation and seven times the processing power of the fifth, supporting the CWA’s need for high-speed computing power, it said.
Introducing smart programs and AI models has significantly reduced errors in typhoon forecasts, the CWA said.
About 20 typhoons form every year in the northwestern Pacific, and the CWA begins forecasting their paths when they are tropical depressions, Weather Forecast Center Director Huang Chuang-hsi (黃樁喜) said.
The weather service issues about four forecasts per day for five to seven days, totaling hundreds each year, from which the annual average forecast error is calculated, Huang said.
Improvements in last year’s forecasts are related to the introduction of AI technology, Huang said.
The agency integrated large-scale AI weather models into its computer in 2023 and applied them to Typhoon Gaemi in 2024, using the 12 to 15 tracks generated by the model as references, which showed strong potential for improving forecasts, he said.
The CWA frequently used AI models last year as forecasters became more familiar with them, improving typhoon forecast accuracy, Huang said.
Taiwan’s three-day forecast of typhoon paths outperformed models from the US and Japan, he added.
The CWA now uses six AI models developed with Nvidia, Google and Microsoft, combined with data from the US, Taiwan and Japan, he said.
Forecasters can analyze a total of 18 possible typhoon tracks, and the agency plans to keep improving its forecasts to match the standards of international typhoon centers, he added.
Considering Taiwan’s complex terrain, any slight difference in a typhoon’s path can significantly change the wind and rain levels in different areas.
With success in more accurately predicting typhoon paths, the CWA would next turn to applying AI models to model wind and rain levels, Huang said.
The agency’s traditional physical models have reached resolution of 1 to 3km, while large AI models only have a resolution of 25 to 28km, he said.
The CWA would continue to collaborate with Nvidia, NTU and other organizations to develop AI models to improve wind and rain forecasts, and better assess the impact of typhoons across Taiwan, he added.
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