The absence of any major escalation in Taiwan-US military cooperation this year should not necessarily be viewed as a negative, as it could indicate that the regional security environment has stabilized, a former Pentagon official said on Thursday.
At a seminar in Taipei, former US Air Force lieutenant colonel Tony Hu (胡振東) said military cooperation between Taipei and Washington has progressed significantly, adding that many interactions now considered routine were not possible when he worked at the Pentagon and the American Institute in Taiwan before Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) took office in 2013.
According to Hu, these changes reflect Washington’s adjustments to its military engagement with Taiwan in response to perceived threats from the Chinese Communist Party.
Photo: Lo Pei-de, Taipei Times
“If people are hoping for a major breakthrough, we would need Xi Jinping to give it a push,” he said.
Institute for National Policy Research executive director Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said US intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities were the most impressive aspect of the seven major military overhauls launched during US President Donald Trump’s second term.
Kuo predicted that Xi would conduct another wave of purges in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army before the upcoming Lunar New Year.
Kuo also predicted a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Chinese “gray zone” tactics around Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies CEO Dong Li-wen (董立文) and Academia Sinica research fellow Lin Cheng-yi (林正義) told the seminar, which focused on Trump’s first year in office, that they expected the international environment to be less turbulent this year.
Dong said that compared with the period from 2020 to last year, “the international security environment in 2026 will be relatively more stable, with a much lower likelihood of events that could fundamentally disrupt the global order.”
Dong cited the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, a “stalemate” in the Russia-Ukraine war and the easing of conflicts in the Middle East as factors reducing uncertainty.
While US policy under Trump remains a key variable, Dong said any overseas military actions this year are unlikely to match the scale seen last year, when US forces were involved in operations in seven countries.
As most countries have spent the past 10 months adapting to Trump’s tariff policies, Dong suggested that a major economic shock in the coming year was less likely.
The international community should now be more psychologically prepared for Trump’s governing style, Lin said, adding that the US president’s biggest challenge this year might come not from China, but from midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 3.
A Republican defeat could be followed by a strong backlash, including impeachment efforts in the US Congress, Lin said.
However, former minister of foreign affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂), president of the Institute for National Policy Research, warned that deepening polarization in US domestic politics could still affect the outcome of that country’s legislative elections.
Additional reporting by Huang Ching-hsuan
NATIONAL SECURITY: Authorities are working to confirm the identities of the military personnel involved and investigating possible illegal conduct and regulatory violations Authorities are probing possible national security implications after Kinmen police and immigration officers on Sunday found a Chinese woman allegedly posing as a tourist while engaging in prostitution involving more than 10 military personnel. The woman, surnamed Chen (陳), has since been deported, authorities said, adding that investigators are still working to confirm the identities of those implicated, as the records only listed code names and aliases. The case stemmed from a report received by the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office on Friday last week from the Jinhu Precinct of the Kinmen County Police Bureau. On Sunday, police, along with the National Immigration
GLOBALGIVING: ‘ Caving to external pressure is not acceptable for an organization that has cultivated justice reform and human rights for 30 years,’ one NGO said A slew of non-government organizations (NGOs) have withdrawn from the GlobalGiving fundraising platform after it announced it would use “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” from next month. The Taiwan Good Rice Association wrote on Facebook on Friday that it was informed on April 28 via a teleconference call of the change, which was made because the platform wanted to operate in China. Taiwan Good Rice is to terminate all cooperative relationships with GlobalGiving in response to the platform’s “unilateral and non-negotiable” decision to remove references to Taiwan, the NGO said. “Taiwan is in the official name of Taiwan Good Rice Association and the
HEAVY WEATHER: Typhoon Jangmi is due to crash straight into the Ryukyus as airlines look to shift flights to larger aircraft or cancel flights to Okinawa entirely Taiwan’s international air carriers announced flight adjustments over the weekend as Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to hit the Ryukyu Islands today and tomorrow. The Central Weather Administration (CWA) upgraded Jangmi from a tropical storm to a typhoon at 8am yesterday, with the eye located 580km south of Naha city. It was moving north at 19kph. Today, China Airlines’ CI-120, CI-121, CI-122 and CI-123 flights between Taoyuan and Naha, Okinawa, have been canceled as well as CI-132 and CI-133 between Kaohsiung and Naha. EVA Air’s BR-112, BR-113, BR-186 and BR-185 flights between Taoyuan and Naha are also canceled. Low-cost carrier Tigerair Taiwan canceled IT-230,
REASONS FOR TRAVEL: An assistant professor said that proposed amendments to penalize drivers if they used drugs overseas would not deter people from traveling People who operate a motor vehicle under the influence of marijuana would have their driver’s license revoked, even if they used the substance while overseas, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications said yesterday, citing proposed amendments to the Road Traffic Management and Penalty Act (道路交通管理處罰條例). The amendments would also authorize the government to revoke the licenses of people determined to have used Category 1 or Category 2 narcotics, even if they were not operating a vehicle while under the influence of drugs, as well as ban them from taking the license test for three years, the ministry said. People aged 18 or
RSS