The absence of any major escalation in Taiwan-US military cooperation this year should not necessarily be viewed as a negative, as it could indicate that the regional security environment has stabilized, a former Pentagon official said on Thursday.
At a seminar in Taipei, former US Air Force lieutenant colonel Tony Hu (胡振東) said military cooperation between Taipei and Washington has progressed significantly, adding that many interactions now considered routine were not possible when he worked at the Pentagon and the American Institute in Taiwan before Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) took office in 2013.
According to Hu, these changes reflect Washington’s adjustments to its military engagement with Taiwan in response to perceived threats from the Chinese Communist Party.
Photo: Lo Pei-de, Taipei Times
“If people are hoping for a major breakthrough, we would need Xi Jinping to give it a push,” he said.
Institute for National Policy Research executive director Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) said US intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities were the most impressive aspect of the seven major military overhauls launched during US President Donald Trump’s second term.
Kuo predicted that Xi would conduct another wave of purges in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army before the upcoming Lunar New Year.
Kuo also predicted a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Chinese “gray zone” tactics around Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies CEO Dong Li-wen (董立文) and Academia Sinica research fellow Lin Cheng-yi (林正義) told the seminar, which focused on Trump’s first year in office, that they expected the international environment to be less turbulent this year.
Dong said that compared with the period from 2020 to last year, “the international security environment in 2026 will be relatively more stable, with a much lower likelihood of events that could fundamentally disrupt the global order.”
Dong cited the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, a “stalemate” in the Russia-Ukraine war and the easing of conflicts in the Middle East as factors reducing uncertainty.
While US policy under Trump remains a key variable, Dong said any overseas military actions this year are unlikely to match the scale seen last year, when US forces were involved in operations in seven countries.
As most countries have spent the past 10 months adapting to Trump’s tariff policies, Dong suggested that a major economic shock in the coming year was less likely.
The international community should now be more psychologically prepared for Trump’s governing style, Lin said, adding that the US president’s biggest challenge this year might come not from China, but from midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 3.
A Republican defeat could be followed by a strong backlash, including impeachment efforts in the US Congress, Lin said.
However, former minister of foreign affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂), president of the Institute for National Policy Research, warned that deepening polarization in US domestic politics could still affect the outcome of that country’s legislative elections.
Additional reporting by Huang Ching-hsuan
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