The National Security Strategy (NSS) report issued by US President Donald Trump’s administration demonstrated Taiwan’s strategic importance, but also showed a shift in Washington’s commitment to Taiwan, a former China policy adviser to the US Department of State said on Friday.
“The NSS correctly identifies Taiwan’s strategic importance beyond semiconductors — recognizing it ‘provides direct access to the second island chain and splits Northeast and Southeast Asia into two distinct theaters,’” said Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.
“Hence deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority,” said the report, which was released earlier on Friday.
Photo: Reuters
While the report said that the US would maintain its long-standing policy on Taiwan, it changed its wording, saying that Washington “does not support” any unilateral change to the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, shifting from using the word “oppose,” which it had done in the previous report issued by the administration of former US president Joe Biden.
Fedasiuk said the shift from “oppose” to “does not support” unilateral changes to the “status quo” was “a meaningful downgrade.”
“Opposes” implies active opposition with potential consequences, but “does not support” suggests passive disapproval without commitment to take any action, he said.
The omissions of “oppose” was significant, as the new expression removes commitments from the US government’s formulaic strategic framework, which has created room for Trump to claim he was not confined by previous formulations in either direction, Fedasiuk said.
The new wording offers “more flexibility for which aspects of its policy the [Trump] administration would prefer to highlight at any given moment,” Fedasiuk said.
“Does not support” was “the clearest evidence of policy drift,” he added.
The weaker language could result in two problems, he said.
First, the shift softens the commitment of the US in the event of unilateral action by China from active opposition to passive disapproval, he said.
The second is that the change establishes downgraded language as the new baseline for future negotiations, he said.
As a result, if Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) meets with Trump next year as planned, the Chinese leader is likely to seek further adjustments, Fedasiuk said.
The 2022 report released by the Biden administration said that the US opposed any unilateral changes to the “status quo” from either side, and it did not support Taiwanese independence, while Washington remained committed to its “one China” policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three joint communiques and the “six assurances.”
During Trump’s first term, the report issued by his administration in 2017 only briefly mentioned Taiwan, saying that the US would maintain its strong ties with the nation based on its “one China” policy, with its commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for its legitimate defense needs and to deter coercion.
In Taipei yesterday, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the military-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told reporters that the report clearly mentions “collective defense” and the prevention of specific countries from occupying Taiwan, demonstrating that the US’ commitment to the security of the Taiwan Strait is firmly anchored, Su said.
“The prevailing doubts within Taiwan about the US should be dispelled,” he said.
Taiwan is in the “golden egg” zone of the first island chain, controlling the maritime link from Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, he said.
If Taiwan were to fall under China’s control, it would likely become “China’s Hawaii,” as the People’s Liberation Army could directly use Hualien Port as a base for nuclear submarines to threaten the US West Coast, he said.
That would be a strategic disaster that democratic allies such as the US, Japan, and South Korea could not bear, he added.
Additional reporting by Fang Wei-li
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