Defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion is key to maintaining global stability, Taiwan-based Canadian author J. Michael Cole wrote in his new book, The Taiwan Tinderbox.
Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many comparisons have been drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan, and many have also contended that it is critical to hold Russia in check in Ukraine.
In an interview with the Central News Agency, Cole cited Ukraine’s resistance against invasion in highlighting the interdependence among democratic countries that has underpinned the international order.
Photo: Reuters
Russian President Vladimir “Putin was actually convinced [Kyiv] would fall in a matter of days,” Cole wrote, adding that as this did not happen, it sent a signal to places like Beijing and Tehran showing “if you think that invading another country is a walk in the park, you’d better think again.”
The message would be the reverse if China were to take Taiwan quickly — whether because Taiwan was defeated or abandoned by the international community — as it would send a “dangerous” signal to other destabilizing forces and authoritarian regimes that they, too, could achieve their objectives through force, said Cole, a nonresident fellow at the Washington-based Global Taiwan Institute.
“Defending Taiwan, just like defending Ukraine, is not only in the interest of Taiwan and Ukraine, but the international community of democracies, that if you win that battle there, chances are you won’t have to fight battles somewhere else,” he wrote. “If you lose that battle there, it’s likelier that you’re going to face different battles.”
While Cole refrained from predictions on whether Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would launch an attack on Taiwan, he presented factors that could influence Xi’s decisionmaking.
For example, Xi’s rise to power has coincided with the emergence of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army as a more modernized and formidable fighting force, so the stage has been set for him “to present himself as the Chinese leader who could finally accomplish the long-sought dream of ‘reunifying’ Taiwan,” Cole wrote.
As to whether China’s growing military power could decrease the US’ willingness to send forces to Taiwan’s aid in a Taiwan Strait war, Cole said it “certainly becomes part of their calculations.”
Taiwan must prepare itself to fight independently, he said, adding that one way is to train civilians to fight before war breaks out, rather than conducting polls gauging people’s willingness to fight.
Countries could apply what they learned from imposing sanctions on Russia to signal to Beijing that it would face penalties that “have a bite” if it invades Taiwan, he added.
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