In the past few weeks China has released a series of statements, articles and photographs that analysts say signal an escalation in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) approach to Taiwan.
Beijing has vowed to annex Taiwan under what it terms “unification.” China’s military is not believed to be capable of a full invasion yet, but senior officials have started using sharper language.
A series of “explainer” articles in China’s state media last month outlined how Taiwan would be governed under Chinese rule: by vetted pro-China “patriots” in a “one country two systems” regime similar to that instituted in Hong Kong and Macau. Such a proposal has long been rejected by Taiwan, particularly after Beijing’s crushing of the “high degree of autonomy” it promised Hong Kong.
Photo: Reuters
“The aim is to belittle Taiwan’s international standing, and Hong Kong-ify and Macau-ify Taiwan, to achieve the political objective of eliminating Taiwan’s sovereignty,” National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) said.
The articles promised peace and economic prosperity, but also warned that “after reunification, risks of war, caused by ‘Taiwanese independence’ secessionists, will be removed and external interference will be prevented.”
Beijing has also added to its historical revisions, designed to bolster its claim over Taiwan, with the designation of a new national holiday in China.
Retrocession Day on Oct. 25 is celebrated in Taiwan to mark the end of Japanese colonial rule, but Beijing has recast it as the day Taiwan was “returned” to China — specifically the China ruled by the CCP.
Beijing has also become stricter in how it allows other countries to talk about Taiwan.
After Germany’s foreign minister said his country’s long-standing position opposed “violent change” in the “status quo” that keeps the tenuous peace in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs essentially accused Berlin of supporting separatism.
“Those who only call for no change of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and do not oppose ‘Taiwanese independence’ are actually aiding and abetting ‘Taiwanese independence’ separatist activities,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun (郭嘉昆) said.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the US-based German Marshall Fund, said she had never heard that language from Chinese officials before, and it marked a significant shift.
“All these moves, including the activities around the ‘Taiwan retrocession’ Day, suggest that Beijing is more aggressively pressing for progress toward reunification,” she said.
Chinese state and social media late last month released a series of photos taken by China’s Jilin-2 satellite of some of Taiwan’s most famous tourist spots — the Alishan (阿里山) mountain range, Sun Moon Lake (日月潭) — and economic centers such as Taipei and the Hsinchu Science Park (新竹科學園區).
The ultra high-definition images were captioned “across the Strait, under one sky.” The Chinese embassy in the US posted them online with the words: “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.”
“Every inch of Taiwan Province, China, is vibrant under the ‘Jilin-1’ space satellite’s perspective,” it said.
Analysts said the message was obvious: Beijing could see “every inch” of Taiwan whenever it wanted.
In Taiwan, people and officials called the photos voyeuristic.
“If the point that China is trying to make with these satellite pictures is that it owns everything it took pictures of, then that’s just plain immature,” Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) told local media.
Chinese officials sought to brush off the characterization.
“It is normal for Chinese satellites to look at the magnificent mountains and rivers of China’s Taiwan. There is nothing surprising about it,” Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman Zhang Xiaogang (張曉剛) said.
Raymond Kuo (郭泓均), director of the RAND Corp’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, said the escalated activity was perhaps more noticeable, after a period in which China had been presenting itself as a stable global neighbor to counter the volatility introduced by the US and others.
There was potentially also strategy behind it.
US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in April, and these moves could help “prepare ground” for Xi seeking US concessions on its protection of Taiwan, Kuo said.
“Enforcing Taiwan’s isolation could make it easier for Xi to say: ‘Already no one deals with Taiwan,’” he said.
Song Bo, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, said it was all part of a two-to-three year “longer-term adjustment” of China’s Taiwan policy, and the lifting of self-imposed limits on how it manages and communicates about Taiwan.
“This isn’t about sudden escalation; it’s about China normalizing actions it once restrained itself from taking,” Song said.
Additional research by Lillian Yang
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