A soon-to-be-formed tropical storm east of the Philippines could begin affecting Taiwan on Wednesday next week, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday.
The storm, to be named Fung-wong (鳳凰), is forecast to approach Taiwan on Tuesday next week and could begin affecting the weather in Taiwan on Wednesday, CWA forecaster Huang En-hung (黃恩鴻) said, adding that its impact might be amplified by the combined effect with the northeast monsoon.
As of 2pm yesterday, the system’s center was 2,800km southeast of Oluanbi (鵝鑾鼻).
Photo courtesy of the Central Weather Administration
It was moving northwest at 18kph.
Meteorologist Lin De-en (林得恩) on Facebook yesterday wrote that the would-be storm is surrounded by the oceanic environment that supports its continual development, adding that it could move in four possible directions.
The first route would occur if high pressure recedes toward the east and the cold air mass has yet to arrive from the north, Lin said. That scenario would prompt the storm to move northward early when it reaches the area just east of 130°E, and afterwards it would proceed to waters south of Japan in a parabolic manner, he said.
Damage is expected to be minor if the storm moves in this direction, he said.
The second route, which is simulated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, would occur if there was little change in the intensity of high pressure in the next few days, and the cold air mass from the north had yet to reach the region, he said.
Under this situation, the storm would begin turning north before approaching land at the north of the Philippines, and its center would move very close to east Taiwan, Lin said, adding that Taiwan would be very much affected by the storm should this scenario happen.
The third route, which is simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, would occur if high pressure expands westward, a northern trough passes at high latitudes and the cold air mass had yet to move south, Lin said.
This would cause the storm to move across the northern part of the Philippines and enter the South China Sea first, before shifting northward, he said, adding that this route would result in a minimal effect on Taiwan.
Another route simulated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System has the storm’s path first passing over the northern part of the Philippines.
After entering the South China Sea, the storm’s northward component is expected to strengthen, with its center projected to make landfall in southern Taiwan and exit over the eastern coast.
This is the trajectory considered most threatening to Taiwan, Lin said.
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