President William Lai’s (賴清德) Double Ten National Day address on Friday softened the tone toward China compared with his major speeches last year, and put defense front and center to signal Taiwan’s resolve to defend itself and to win support from democratic partners, experts said yesterday.
In a speech marking the Republic of China’s (ROC) 114th National Day, Lai devoted less time to directly addressing cross-strait relations than in addresses last year.
Urging China to “take responsibility as a major power,” Lai said Taiwan hopes Beijing would “renounce the use of force or coercion to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.”
Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA
Compared with speeches last year on Oct. 10 and for his inauguration, Lai did not repeat the line that “the ROC and the People’s Republic of China [PRC] are not subordinate to each other.”
William Yang (楊?暐), a senior analyst for North East Asia at the International Crisis Group, said that, unlike last year, Lai avoided using “sharp and assertive language to criticize China directly.”
“Instead, Lai used softer and more reconciliatory language to express Taiwan’s hope to see China reduce the level of aggression and threats against Taiwan,” Yang said.
“It is both to amplify his goodwill for peace while proving to the international community that Taiwan remains focused on trying to reduce tension and uphold the status quo through peaceful ways,” he added.
Sung Wen-ti (宋文笛), a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said that while Lai accused China of expansionism, he also called on Beijing to, in Sung’s words, “listen to the better angels of its nature and behave like the responsible great power that he thinks China can be.”
Tzeng Wei-feng (曾偉?), an associate research fellow at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, said that Lai’s address on Friday toned down language on sovereignty issues to give Beijing less of an opportunity to make an issue of it.
After Lai reiterated the “not subordinate to each other” phrase in last year’s National Day speech, China’s state-run People’s Daily swiftly labeled it a “new two-state theory,” which was followed by the “Joint Sword-2024B” military exercise that encircled Taiwan for one day, Tzeng said.
Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University, said that the idea of two countries not being subordinate to each other is a settled fact that does not need constant repetition.
Without ruling out the possibility of another military drill, Sung said that Beijing would be “unhappy no matter what Lai says.”
The decision not to repeat the phrase reflects a broader international context, not concern over a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) at APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, which is scheduled for Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, but a holistic calculation that, amid US-China rivalry, Taiwan should avoid becoming a “standout focal point,” Wang said.
Yang said that Lai’s “clear adjustment” in tone, focus and delivery this year makes it “more difficult for China to try to justify the launch of another major military exercise around Taiwan.”
Bao Chengke (包承柯), deputy director at the Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies, said that although Lai did not use the “not subordinate to each other” phrase or label China a “hostile external force,” Friday’s speech still showed that his stance on Taiwanese independence has not changed.
The speech was “unlikely to send cross-strait relations out of control,” but also “unlikely to herald a thaw,” Bao said, adding that further observation is needed to see where policy under the Lai administration goes next.
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