Taiwan should impose semiconductor export controls as diplomatic leverage with precision to avoid a backlash, Institute for National Defense and Security Research analyst Lin Chia-yi (林佳宜) wrote in an article published on the institute’s Web site on Thursday.
The nation seems to be embracing “semiconductor diplomacy” as part of its policy tool kit, Lin wrote, after the government on Tuesday unveiled proposed restrictions on chip exports to South Africa over a dispute about its unilateral downgrading of Taiwan’s representative office in Pretoria.
Taiwan suspended implementation of the ban after Pretoria sought talks with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs over the matter.
Photo: Cheng I-hwa, AFP
Although Taiwan’s military capabilities are limited, its indispensable role in global supply chains for chips could be a deterrent, as semiconductor access is crucial to the economic well-being of many nations, Lin wrote.
South Africa imports chips from Taiwan and China, but Taiwan is the main supplier of advanced chips used in semiconductor manufacturing, data centers and artificial intelligence projects, she said.
Should the government’s efforts to put economic pressure on South Africa prove successful, Taiwan would likely embrace “semiconductor diplomacy” as a routine policy tool, she said.
However, Taipei should be careful in wielding chip export restrictions, as it could backfire by shocking global supply chains or the Taiwanese economy, she said.
Putting too much pressure on South Africa risks pushing it deeper into China’s camp to find an alternative source of semiconductors, Lin said.
Taiwan should limit bans on advanced semiconductor exports, as the administration of former US president Joe Biden did with China, she said.
Taiwan’s technology embargo on South Africa could be a game changer in the region’s geopolitics, as African nations seeking to build infrastructure and digitize their economy need semiconductors, she said.
African governments wanting access to Taiwanese chips would need to weigh the costs of their compliance with Beijing’s “one China” principle, she added.
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