Mosquitoes capable of carrying the dengue virus could spread further north to Taichung and Hualien County by 2040 due to climate change, research showed.
As Egyptian mosquitoes spread dengue fever and several other illnesses, tracking their movements has been a focus of disease control and prevention.
To this end, the Climate Change Administration commissioned the National Health Research Institutes to research the impact of climate change on mosquito habitats.
Photo: Tsai Shu-yuan, Taipei Times
The mosquitoes previously only went as far north as Chiayi County, the results showed.
However, last year there were colonies found in Yunlin County’s Beigang Township (北港), showing they are moving northward, researchers said.
They estimated that Taichung and Hualien may become suitable habitats for Egyptian mosquitoes over the next 20 years due to environmental changes.
As such, these two places would need to strengthen their mosquito surveillance and control measures, they added.
Data from previous years showed that Egyptian mosquitoes generally did not venture north of the Tropic of Cancer, which is in Chiayi, said Huang Ching-chi (黃旌集), project convener and researcher at the National Mosquito-borne Diseases Control Research Center.
However, researchers last year discovered Egyptian mosquito larvae along with both males and females in Yunlin, showing that they are reproducing there as well, Huang said.
The study combines current data on mosquito distribution with climate information to determine suitable conditions for mosquito survival, Huang said.
The model also incorporates climate change scenarios from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to predict which areas might have suitable climates for the mosquitoes in the future, he said.
On a positive note, Huang said that the latest survey in July showed mosquito populations in Yunlin declining, so prevention and control measures seem to be working.
He also emphasized that the predictions using this model still carry uncertainties.
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