The US and Taiwan would maintain a collective military advantage over China in and around the Taiwan Strait if Beijing attempts aggression against Taiwan in 2027, as many have speculated, said retired US admiral Dennis Blair, a former commander in chief of the US Pacific Command.
Blair, who was in Taipei for a series of civilian-held tabletop exercises, was on Thursday speaking during a joint media interview that included the Central News Agency.
Asked to comment on 2027, which some believe could be a critical point in China's plans to invade Taiwan, Blair said: "2027 to me is just one date. And as I look at it, that will be a date at which both Taiwanese and American capability will be actually higher relative to PLA capabilities.”
Photo: CNA
In congressional testimony in 2021, then-US Indo-Pacific Command commander Philip Davidson, said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Davidson's comments have since been echoed by many US officials, including most recently US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue on May 31.
However, Blair said the 2027 date was set to coincide with the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party [Editor's note: it is actually the founding of the PLA], making it feel more like a "slogan" than an actual plan.
Commenting on China's efforts to undertake force modernization since the 1990s, Blair said he sees "a much more widespread modernization, not a modernization that is simply directed at invading Taiwan."
For instance, the massive investments China has made in developing its nuclear arsenal, space systems, carrier battle groups and long-range logistical support are "not specialized for a Taiwan invasion," he said.
Blair, who is also a former director of US national intelligence, said that while the US began significantly increasing its defense spending later than China in about 2003, "we began building new types of weapons which were specifically designed to counter the weapons that China had built 10, 15 years before."
These included increased air missile defense hypersonic weapons that would pose a serious threat to Chinese military installations, he said.
If, by 2027, Taiwan has taken steps to bolster its defense capabilities — for example, by developing autonomous vehicles to support combat on land and in nearby waters — then "the balance in 2027 will still be favorable for the US and Taiwan," Blair said.
Blair was also asked whether the unprecedented presence of two Chinese aircraft carriers in the Pacific indicates that the US and its democratic allies have failed to provide sufficient deterrence against Chinese naval activities in the region.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense on Tuesday last week said that China's Shandong aircraft carrier, along with four other vessels, had entered Japan's exclusive economic zone a day earlier.
The announcement came just one day after the ministry reported that the Liaoning, China's only other active aircraft carrier, had entered waters near Minamitorishima, a remote island east of Iwo Jima.
In peacetime, civilian ships or warships can sail in international waters around the world, unencumbered by any opposition or international boundaries, Blair said.
"But for the purposes of deterrence, the question is can you sustain your naval presence when there is a war going on, when a war starts?" he asked.
By expanding its military projection, China might have wanted to use "gunboat diplomacy" to force countries such as Taiwan, Japan and the US to make "political concessions," Blair said.
"But what really matters is what will happen in the event of conflict — Chinese ships operating in these areas would be sunk," he said. "Therefore, operating there in peacetime does not have real political importance.”
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