A coalition of Taiwan-based think tanks yesterday launched a tabletop war simulation, with high-ranking military officers from Taiwan, the US and Japan participating.
Nine retired generals and eight retired lieutenant generals are role players in the two-day exercise, which simulates a Chinese invasion of Taiwan proper and its outlying islands, the organizers told a news conference in Taipei.
Among them are retired US admiral Michael Mullen, a former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff; retired US admiral Dennis Blair, a former Pacific commander; and retired Japanese general Shigeru Iwasaki, a former chief of staff of the Japan Self-Defense Forces.
Photo: Tu Chien-jung, Taipei Times
Previous simulations by non-governmental organizations have focused on decisionmaking at the highest level, Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation chairman Huang Huang-hsiung (黃煌雄) said.
The exercise yesterday and today divides a cross-strait contingency into four phases centered on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) intimidation, coercion, punishment and invasion of Taiwan, Huang said.
The purpose of the exercise is to scientifically and rigorously test Taiwan’s defensive strategies, and raise international awareness of the cross-strait situation, Huang said, adding that predicting the outcome of a hypothetical conflict was not among the goals.
The foreign former military officers were asked to participate to realistically simulate decisions that the US and Japanese militaries would make in a conflict with China, said retired navy admiral Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), a former chief of the general staff.
Mullen in 2022 led a delegation to Taiwan to visit then-president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lee said.
Blair helped design the Han Kuang exercises and observed them from 2003 to 2006, he added.
Lee said that Iwasaki, who was a general in the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, is a strong advocate of Taiwan and is his mentor.
The war games have been eight months in the making, Council on Strategic and Wargaming Strategies director-general Huang Chieh-cheng (黃介正) said.
The simulation features four groups playing the parts of Taiwan, the US, Japan and China, in addition to a control group, he said.
It would cover a series of events starting with China being pushed to escalate cross-strait tensions by economic setbacks and social unarrest, leading to the outbreak of military conflict, he said.
The exercise assumes Taiwan has obtained the asymmetric capabilities it has planned, and that fighting would take place on Taiwan proper and outlying islands, he added.
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