A tabletop exercise series has begun simulating possible scenarios if the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a war against Taiwan in the guise of a military exercise.
The exercise series is jointly organized by National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, Taiwan Center for Security Studies and Asia-Pacific Policy Research Association.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chen Yeong-kang (陳永康), former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) director William Stanton and Taiwan Center for Security Studies director Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國) attended the event in Taipei yesterday.
Photo: Lin Cheng-kun, Taipei Times
Scenarios that would be simulated include changing political circumstances in the US during US President Donald Trump’s tenure and the PLA’s “gray zone” harassment around Taiwan, such as damaging submarine cables, Liu told reporters.
The series would simulate how people in Taiwan should respond in terms of military, national security, diplomacy and economy if a PLA military exercise turned into an invasion, Liu said.
Despite a rise in cross-strait tensions, the likelihood of China launching an invasion remains low, Liu said, adding that proactive military actions from China are generally launched in coordination with its political moves.
Beijing’s recurring military exercises do not necessarily mean that it would launch an all-out invasion of Taiwan, Chen said.
“Instead they are a strategic act designed to intimidate Taiwanese, put constant pressure on the nation and engage in an attritional battle” to drain its resources, he said.
Chen said that the purpose of the exercise series is to identify strategies for the government to implement to control risks and prevent war, adding that Taiwan’s social resilience and military defense capabilities should also be bolstered.
Stanton said former president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) decision to restore mandatory military service to one year was the right one, but it would be more appropriate to extend it to two-years of service given the potential threat facing Taiwan.
“We hope to see a stronger Taiwanese military and less political division ... Now is not the time for politics,” he said.
Taiwan should take advantage of its status in the semiconductor industry and win over support from other countries, Stanton said.
Asked if Taiwan would be in a situation similar to that of Ukraine, Stanton said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed strong support for Taiwan, while Trump refused to say explicitly what he would do in a cross-strait conflict.
Trump understands that he would have to handle his relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and has strategic considerations, he said, adding that a free and democratic Taiwan is worth the support from the US.
Regarding how to learn from the Ukrainian military, Chen said what worked for Ukraine might not work for Taiwan, but it should learn from the failures of the Ukrainian military.
Seeing how the US and Ukraine interacted should remind Taiwan to bolster its own capabilities in handling cross-strait conflicts, he said.
“Not only must we maintain our relations with the Trump administration, but we must strive to pursue peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
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