For years, the US government has urged China to show “restraint” in pushing its claims regarding Taiwan and to drop military threats to bring the nation under its control.
Now — some Chinese commentators say — the power of that long-held US message has been undermined by the threats by US president-elect Donald Trump to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, by force if necessary. Trump is to take office on Monday next week.
The implications of Trump’s comments for US policy on Taiwan have been widely discussed on Chinese social media platforms in the past few days and by foreign-policy analysts.
Photo: Reuters
Some say Trump’s break with the norms of US diplomacy could create an opening for China.
One Chinese expert said that Trump’s first term in office signaled that he views foreign policy as transactional in nature and suggested he might be amenable to a deal regarding Taiwan.
Zhao Minghao (趙明昊), a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that Trump’s threats to take Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada needed to be taken seriously.
“Besides that, we need to think about Trump’s transactionalism, which he is serious about as well. Many in China still perceive Trump as a dealmaker, even on very tough issues like the Taiwan question,” Zhao said.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was “absurd” to try and link Greenland’s status to Taiwan.
“The Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese matter, and how to resolve it is something for the Chinese people,” it said in a statement.
Asked whether Trump’s comments could provide impetus to China creating trouble over Taiwan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the Republic of China is a “sovereign and independent country.”
“Any distortion of Taiwan’s sovereign status will not change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” it said in a statement.
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
During his first term in office, Trump offered strong support to Taiwan, including regularizing arms sales.
However, during his presidential campaign last year, he said that Taiwan should pay the US to be defended.
Taiwan has repeatedly said it is committed to increasing its defense spending.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is vastly different to the Greenland, Canada or Panama Canal situations. In China’s eyes, Taiwan is already legally Chinese territory whose destiny is to be “returned to the motherland.”
Nevertheless, Trump’s comments on Greenland have created a stir on Chinese social media, which is subject to censorship.
“If Greenland is annexed by the United States, China must take Taiwan,” Wang Jiangyu (王江雨), a professor of law at City University of Hong Kong, wrote on Sina Weibo.
One commentator on a blog run by Chinese search engine Baidu said that if Trump does move on Greenland, China should “seize the opportunity to take back Taiwan.”
“Trump seems to be serious, so we too should see what we could get from this,” wrote the commentator, using the handle “Hongtu Shumeng.”
Chen Fei (陳菲), an associate professor at Central China Normal University’s School of Politics and International Studies, wrote on Chinese news portal NetEase that just like Greenland for Trump, Taiwan was a core security interest for China.
However, the two issues are not the same as what Trump is doing is directly threatening another country’s sovereignty, Chen said.
“Taiwan is China’s intrinsic territory and a pure internal Chinese matter,” he wrote. “It has nothing to do with another country’s sovereignty.”
However, Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the Washington-based German Marshall Fund of the US, said that for Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) there were other factors carrying greater weight, especially his assessment of the country’s military capabilities and the likely costs China would incur if it used force against Taiwan.
“I doubt that Beijing will draw parallels between Greenland and Taiwan,” Glaser said. “The Chinese believe that Taiwan is already and always has been part of China — they won’t pay money for it and no government in Taiwan will agree to be bought.”
Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and former US Department of Defense official, also said it was “quite preposterous” to think Trump’s Greenland comments could embolden China’s claims.
However, “it does strike me that should President Trump refuse to ... rule out the use of military force to achieve and protect US interests, I would think that type of statement and determination would serve to further deter Beijing to take any action that would prompt the US to take military action to protect Taiwan,” Thompson said.
“That’s a pretty mighty deterrent for China,” he added.
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