Taiwan and the US can use asymmetric weapons to counter a Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) blockade, a defense analyst said yesterday.
Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the state-run Institute for National Defense and Security Research, made the comments days after Navy Commander Admiral Tang Hua (唐華) said in an interview with The Economist that the PLA is using an “anaconda strategy” to subdue Taiwan.
Taiwan’s armed forces are being stretched thin, and the Chinese military is “slowly, but surely” increasing its presence around Taiwan proper, Tang was quoted as saying, adding that “they are ready to blockade Taiwan at any time they want.”
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
Tang’s remarks were “factually correct,” but a blockade would also be difficult for Beijing, as achieving victory would require it to win quickly and decisively to avoid the political costs of defeat, Su said.
Citing the US’ Taiwan Relations Act, Su said the US is legally obligated to assist Taiwan if China attempts to alter the “status quo” with non-peaceful means, such as by enacting a naval blockade on shipping.
However, the US has long maintained a stance of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene in a war to help Taiwan.
Options for the US include taking direct action, such as by challenging the blockade or imposing sanctions, he said.
Anti-blockade operations, a classic form of asymmetric warfare, can include deploying submarines to attack the blockade from a distance, or conducting resupply missions using smaller vessels or airdrops, he said.
Taiwan should increase its stockpile of strategic materials, accelerate the development of alternative transport platforms and make better use of the nation’s fishing harbors for logistics, Su said.
The army and navy must be capable of conducting joint operations to defend shipping lines by deploying coastal anti-ship missile batteries to create a safe zone for resupply and naval combatants to escort convoys, he said.
Ukraine’s use of kamikaze drones to push the Russian Navy away from the nation’s coastal waters is instructive, he added.
However, other researchers say Taiwan still needs more symmetric platforms to be able to break a blockade.
Chieh Chung (揭仲), a researcher at the Association of Strategic Foresight, said Taiwan must obtain more submarines and Aegis Combat System-equipped warships because air and sea control are crucial to anti-blockade operations.
If the nation cannot develop these capabilities in the short term, Taiwan should ask the US for AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missiles, which have a longer range than the Harpoon missiles currently in service, he said.
Stand-off capability is key to creating safe zones for supply ships in the seas surrounding Taiwan, Chieh said.
The government should make arrangements for the US to create safe sea lanes for civilian shipping should China attempt to impose a blockade on the nation, he said.
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