As Tropical Storm Bebinca barrels toward waters off northern Taiwan gathering strength into a possible typhoon, weather forecasters in Taipei are using a new and so far successful method to help track its path: artificial intelligence (AI).
AI-generated forecasts, some powered by software from tech giants including Nvidia, whose chips are made by Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor champion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, have so far outperformed traditional methods in predicting typhoon tracks.
In July, it was AI-based weather models, used for the first time, that helped Taiwan better predict the path and impact of Typhoon Gaemi, the strongest to strike the nation in eight years that brought record-breaking rainfall.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
The new technology impressed Taiwanese forecasters by predicting a direct hit as early as eight days before Gaemi made landfall, handily outperforming conventional methods, which remain the mainstay of prediction planning.
“People are starting to realize AI indeed delivered some stunning performances compared to conventional models,” Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention of Technology Engineering Consulting Co director Chia Hsin-sing (賈新興) said.
Bebinca is being tracked using the same AI tools by people including Lin Ping-yu (林秉煜), a forecaster at the Central Weather Administration (CWA), who said that AI has given the agency a higher degree of confidence there would not be a direct hit.
“This [AI] is a good thing for us. It is like having one more useful tool to use,” Lin said.
The AI weather programs on offer include Nvidia’s FourCastNet, Google’s GraphCast and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather, as well as a deep learning-based system by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
“It is a hotly watched competition. We will know soon who is winning,” Chia said.
Such AI models have also begun to be used to predict storms and hurricanes in other regions with good accuracy, forecasters and academics say.
The AI-based software is trained using historical weather data to learn the cause and effect relationships of meteorological systems and can predict hundreds of weather variables days in advance — a process that requires only a few minutes to complete.
For all the typhoons in the western Pacific this year until the middle of this month, AI’s accuracy in predicting storm tracks over a three-day window was nearly 20 percent higher than that of conventional models, data compiled by the CWA showed.
Ahead of Gaemi, AI helped the CWA foresee an unusual loop in its path that prolonged its impact on Taiwan and prompted it to swiftly issue a rare warning for rainfall of 1.8m, which was later proven accurate, CWA Deputy Administrator Lu Kuo-chen (呂國臣) said.
AI “boosted the confidence for forecasters to make that prediction,” Lu said, adding that the early warning gave extra time for authorities to carry out preparations.
Lu is also pinning hopes on a partnership with Nvidia, which this year announced a generative AI tool called CorrDiff that aims to forecast more precise locations of typhoon landfall and provide higher resolution images inside a storm.
“We are seeing the potential,” Lu said.
However, for now experts say the AI tools were not able to deliver quality forecasts for more detailed impact of a typhoon, such as its strength and winds, and more time is needed for the new technology to solidify its lead over more traditional ways.
“Was it just good luck?” Chia asked, pointing to AI’s stellar performance on Gaemi. “We need to give AI a bit more time. It is something to look forward to.”
AI is also being used to forecast wave patterns, with the system expected to be fully operational by 2026 in 16 of the 22 administrative regions in Taiwan, the CWA said.
Twelve monitoring stations and several forecasting systems have been established nationwide to improve safety for recreational water activities, the agency said.
Pilot programs are under way along the north coast and at the Northeast and Yilan Coast National Scenic Area, it said.
The CWA said it has partnered with local research institutions to develop rip current monitoring and forecasting tools.
Using AI, they are producing detailed wave forecasts to enhance the safety of coastal recreation and other operations, it added.
Additional reporting by CNA
NATIONAL SECURITY: Authorities are working to confirm the identities of the military personnel involved and investigating possible illegal conduct and regulatory violations Authorities are probing possible national security implications after Kinmen police and immigration officers on Sunday found a Chinese woman allegedly posing as a tourist while engaging in prostitution involving more than 10 military personnel. The woman, surnamed Chen (陳), has since been deported, authorities said, adding that investigators are still working to confirm the identities of those implicated, as the records only listed code names and aliases. The case stemmed from a report received by the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office on Friday last week from the Jinhu Precinct of the Kinmen County Police Bureau. On Sunday, police, along with the National Immigration
STAY COOL: The HPA recommended that people stay hydrated, use air-conditioning or fans while indoors, wear loose-fitting clothes and walk in the shade while outdoors Employers must implement measures such as installing cooling equipment, and providing drinking water and rest breaks for outdoor workers starting from Monday next week, the Taipei Department of Labor said on Sunday. Employers who fail to comply could face fines of NT$30,000 to NT$300,000 under the Occupational Safety and Health Act (職業安全衛生法), the department said. Businesses in Taipei employing fewer than 100 workers, as well as registered self-employed workers with labor insurance coverage, could receive on-site assessments and guidance from occupational safety consultants to help them apply for central government subsidies to implement or improve heat-protection measures, it said. Under the Ministry of
GLOBALGIVING: ‘ Caving to external pressure is not acceptable for an organization that has cultivated justice reform and human rights for 30 years,’ one NGO said A slew of non-government organizations (NGOs) have withdrawn from the GlobalGiving fundraising platform after it announced it would use “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” from next month. The Taiwan Good Rice Association wrote on Facebook on Friday that it was informed on April 28 via a teleconference call of the change, which was made because the platform wanted to operate in China. Taiwan Good Rice is to terminate all cooperative relationships with GlobalGiving in response to the platform’s “unilateral and non-negotiable” decision to remove references to Taiwan, the NGO said. “Taiwan is in the official name of Taiwan Good Rice Association and the
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) yesterday briefed her party’s Central Standing Committee regarding her scheduled visit to the US between Monday next week and June 16, saying that her purpose would be to persuade the US that the Republic of China (ROC) Constitution was a “one China” constitution that would foster stable and peaceful cross-strait relations. The ROC Constitution is the most important defense for all Taiwanese citizens, as it upholds our democracy and has contributed to our robust economy, which aligns with international and US interests, she said. “We would not be troublemakers and drag the US under,”
RSS