Former US president Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, could weaken alliances and undermine deterrence against China, posing risks for Taiwan, international relations experts have warned.
Trump would face US President Joe Biden in November if Biden withstands the pressure from Democratic Party members and donors to step aside.
Their vastly different foreign policies have significant implications for Taiwan, two experts said.
Photo: CNA
University of Pennsylvania Center for the Study of Contemporary China director Jacques deLisle on Friday said that a Democratic victory would likely mean “a great deal of continuity” in Taiwan policy.
However, a Trump victory would be unpredictable, with Republican lawmakers likely following his lead, posing risks for Taiwan, deLisle said.
One risk is Trump’s “transactional approach” to diplomacy, he said, adding that the former president’s demand Taiwan pay more for US defense aid mirrors his stance toward NATO.
While the US has aided Taiwan in arms purchases, Trump believes Taipei should “pay market prices,” he added.
Trump does not value US commitments to allies, he said. Regardless of his view on Taiwan’s security, he would likely weaken US relations with Japan, South Korea and other allies, affecting cooperation to deter China, he added.
In contrast, since taking office in 2021, Biden has repeatedly stated his willingness to defend Taiwan, and in an interview with Time magazine last month he did not rule out military action.
The importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has often been emphasized in US bilateral and multilateral meetings with allies.
Meanwhile, Council on Foreign Relations research fellow David Sacks wrote in an article titled “Taiwan’s Trump Conundrum” published on Friday that a Trump victory would present allies with a US president who views diplomacy as transactional.
“This dilemma will be keenly felt in Taiwan,” he said.
Trump was popular in Taiwan before leaving office in 2021, marking the closest Taiwan-US relations since Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, Sacks said.
However, Trump’s recent comments on Taiwan cast doubt on whether this support would continue if he were re-elected, he said.
Taipei downplayed Trump’s remarks by pointing to bipartisan support in the US and the emphasis on Taiwan’s importance by former Trump administration officials.
While this is true, the US president has significant autonomy in foreign policy, and it might be unrealistic to expect the US Congress to restrain Trump’s actions, Sacks said.
Some believe the US should fully deter China from attacking Taiwan and, if deterrence fails, defend Taiwan due to its strategic location, economic significance and democratic governance, he said.
These arguments aim to prevent negative effects on the international order and US alliances, but such points might not convince Trump, Sacks said.
Trump is skeptical of US alliances, viewing them as “free riders,” he said.
If the US does not defend Taiwan, it could signal to allies that they must take responsibility for their own security, which Trump believes would ultimately benefit the US, he said.
Regarding Trump’s claim that Taiwan has been stealing the US semiconductor industry, deLisle said he believed this was a misunderstanding.
Chip design and development are largely based in the US, while manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co are in Taiwan.
“That’s a cooperative, not a competitive relationship,” deLisle said.
Sacks said that Trump’s comments on Taiwan are “fully consistent with his worldview” and that his view is “unlikely to change.”
For Trump, international relations are often driven by bilateral economic ties, with geopolitics being secondary, he said.
Trump believes Taiwan is taking advantage of the US economically, a perspective likely to influence his broader view of Taiwan-US relations, Sacks added.
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