Beijing’s non-military coercive actions against Taiwan, such as diplomatic isolation and political interference, are intended to break down the confidence of Taiwanese and might be of greater concern than a military threat, a US foreign policy analyst said on Monday.
In a talk with the New York-based National Committee on US-China Relations, Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the US and China are entering an “action-reaction dynamic” over Taiwan, in which both sides believe they are reacting to the actions of the other.
While this has led to increasing talk in Washington about the risk of conflict, Hass said he was more concerned about the “non-military coercive challenge” Taiwan faces from Beijing.
Photo: CNA
In practice, the coercion takes the form of diplomatic isolation, cyberoperations and political interference, which are intended to wear down the psychological confidence of Taiwanese, Hass said.
The end goal of the strategy is to establish that Taiwan “is on its own in dealing with the mainland, and that its only path to peace or prosperity is to welcome the embrace of Beijing,” he said.
To counter these efforts, the US can provide “a steady, clear, firm approach” to Taiwan that remains within the bounds of its “one China” policy, said Hass, who served as director of China, Taiwan and Mongolia policy on the US National Security Council from 2013 to 2017.
It is in the US’ interest for Taiwanese to feel safe and confident in their future, to enjoy dignity and respect on the world stage, and to expand their trade and investment links with others around the world, Hass said.
Meanwhile, the US and China need to have “clear straight conversations” about the intentions of their actions and what they believe they are responding to, rather than relying on intuition, he said.
“The reality is that neither Washington nor Beijing benefits from allowing the situation to spiral out, and neither do the people of Taiwan,” he added.
Ultimately, it is Taiwanese who will be making the decisions about their future, Hass said. “And so the more the burden is on Beijing to provide an attractive offering to the people of Taiwan to try to persuade them about the direction that they would like to see in Taiwan’s future — that’s to everyone’s benefit.”
Despite China’s initial expectations that its relations with the US would improve with the inauguration of US President Joe Biden in January, tensions between the countries have remained high.
Earlier this month, the US Department of State issued new guidelines allowing US officials to interact more freely with their Taiwanese counterparts, while an unofficial delegation sent by Biden visited Taiwan last week.
Coinciding with the US actions, an increased number of Chinese warplanes have been reported flying in the vicinity of Taiwan, while China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier conducted training exercises in waters near Taiwan.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to