If US policy toward China changes under an administration of US president-elect Joe Biden, Taiwan might come under greater pressure from Beijing, said Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University, told the Central News Agency (CNA) yesterday.
China is perceived as a threat by US Democrats and Republicans alike, and there is a consensus between Washington’s executive and legislative branches, Kuo said, but he added that he still is concerned about Biden’s possible approach.
A lighter approach or a slower pace in implementing policies toward China would give Beijing a greater leeway, he said.
If Biden hesitates, Taiwan might come under greater pressure, Kuo said.
It was not yet clear how Biden would approach the issue, but it would likely be different from US President Donald Trumps, Alexander Huang (黃介正), a professor at Tamkang University, told CNA.
Even though some fundamental things would likely not change, there would “definitely be massive changes” to US-China-Taiwan relations under Biden, he added.
Even though the US-China relations would remain “competitive,” and laws, such as the 40-year-old Taiwan Relations Act, would remain in place, based on Biden’s personality and the policies of former US president Barack Obama’s administration, Washington would be less “hawkish” toward China, Huang said.
Biden would less often voice harsh criticism of China and avoid direct conflict, Huang added.
Lee Che-chuan (李哲全), a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that the US under Biden would remain supportive of Taiwan, as this is consensus in Washington.
However, Biden would approach foreign relations, including those to Beijing, more traditional, Lee said.
Separately yesterday, Taiwan Thinktank advisory committee member Tung Li-wen (董立文) said that a Biden administration might continue to pursue the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, but with less bellicose rhetoric.
In terms of cross-strait relations, Tung expects few changes in US policy, as Democrats have understood the threat that Beijing poses.
The “one China” policy was removed from the Democratic Party’s platform, he said, adding that 10 days before the election, Biden submitted an open letter to a Chinese-language media outlet emphasizing the importance of Taiwan’s democracy, and its disease-prevention achievements and economic prosperity.
Biden in the letter also promised to work toward broader US-Taiwan relations, Tung said.
Meanwhile, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), head of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research’s Division of National Defense Strategies and Resources, said that a Biden administration might continue arms sales to Taiwan.
However, while for the Trump administration, “arms sales were arms sales, and China policy was China policy,” a Biden administration might pursue a combined approach and focus more on multilateral arrangements.
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