China would not attack Taiwan before 2024, as long as President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) does not push for de jure independence or moves to rely on foreign countries for security, an academic said yesterday.
Chao Chun-shan (趙春山), a professor emeritus at the Institute of China Studies at Tamkang University, made the remarks at a forum organized by the Taiwan Cross-Strait Roundtable Forum Association, which is affiliated with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
“The US would not change its policy for ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan, while the US and China would continue to have confrontations and cooperation, as in trade matters,” Chao said.
Photo: Chen Yu-fu, Taipei Times
“The key for Taiwan is to avoid becoming embroiled in US-China conflicts, while striving for inclusion on issues where the two sides cooperate,” he said.
Taiwan was only mentioned briefly in 15 words during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) address at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee in Beijing last week, Chao said.
“Xi did not talk about ‘one country, two systems’ nor warn against Taiwan independence,” he added.
“Next year Beijing is to celebrate the 100-year anniversary of the founding of CCP, so it is highly unlikely that China would start a war,” he said, adding that the CCP would hold its 20th National Congress in 2022.
“How can Xi start a war in the Taiwan Strait during this period?” Chao said.
In addition, the CCP’s deadline to complete its military modernization effort is 2027, when it would mark the 100-year anniversary of the Chinese Red Army, the predecessor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, he said.
“Therefore, as long as President Tsai does not push for de jure independence, and avoids overreliance on foreign countries for security, then we are certain that China would not attack Taiwan before 2024,” he said.
US President Donald Trump and former US vice president Joe Biden, Trumps contender in Tuesday’s presidential election, agree on deterring China’s rise as a regional power, and confrontations between the nations would continue in the long term, Chao said.
“We would not see much change in this strategy, except in its application,” he added.
“Biden favors multilateralism, while he is against decoupling from China, so Taiwan need its own strategy, and cannot just follow US policy as before,” Chao said.
“No matter which candidate ends up in the White House, the US and China will continue to compete on trade, technology and military capabilities... Taiwan has to carefully and closely observe changes in US-China-Taiwan relations to find the most appropriate approach going forward,” association chairman and former Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Chang Hsien-yao (張顯耀) said.
Additional reporting by CNA
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck off the coast of Hualien County in eastern Taiwan at 7pm yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The epicenter of the temblor was at sea, about 69.9km south of Hualien County Hall, at a depth of 30.9km, it said. There were no immediate reports of damage resulting from the quake. The earthquake’s intensity, which gauges the actual effect of a temblor, was highest in Taitung County’s Changbin Township (長濱), where it measured 5 on Taiwan’s seven-tier intensity scale. The quake also measured an intensity of 4 in Hualien, Nantou, Chiayi, Yunlin, Changhua and Miaoli counties, as well as
Taiwan is to have nine extended holidays next year, led by a nine-day Lunar New Year break, the Cabinet announced yesterday. The nine-day Lunar New Year holiday next year matches the length of this year’s holiday, which featured six extended holidays. The increase in extended holidays is due to the Act on the Implementation of Commemorative and Festival Holidays (紀念日及節日實施條例), which was passed early last month with support from the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party. Under the new act, the day before Lunar New Year’s Eve is also a national holiday, and Labor Day would no longer be limited
COMMITMENTS: The company had a relatively low renewable ratio at 56 percent and did not have any goal to achieve 100 percent renewable energy, the report said Pegatron Corp ranked the lowest among five major final assembly suppliers in progressing toward Apple Inc’s commitment to be 100 percent carbon neutral by 2030, a Greenpeace East Asia report said yesterday. While Apple has set the goal of using 100 percent renewable energy across its entire business, supply chain and product lifecycle by 2030, carbon emissions from electronics manufacturing are rising globally due to increased energy consumption, it said. Given that carbon emissions from its supply chain accounted for more than half of its total emissions last year, Greenpeace East Asia evaluated the green transition performance of Apple’s five largest final
The first tropical storm of the year in the western North Pacific, Wutip (蝴蝶), has formed over the South China Sea and is expected to move toward Hainan Island off southern China, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. The agency said a tropical depression over waters near the Paracel and Zhongsha islands strengthened into a tropical storm this morning. The storm had maximum sustained winds near its center of 64.8kph, with peak gusts reaching 90kph, it said. Winds at Beaufort scale level 7 — ranging from 50kph to 61.5kph — extended up to 80km from the center, it added. Forecaster Kuan Hsin-ping
RSS