Tue, Sep 15, 2009 page3

• ANALYSIS: Primary raises doubts about Ma’s leadership of KMT

  • By Ko Shu-ling / STAFF REPORTER
  • • 
    • 
    • 

  Former minister of health Yeh Ching-chuan’s (葉金川) loss in the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) primary for Hualien County commissioner this month was a warning to President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), analysts say.

  Yeh was considered Ma’s handpicked candidate and his loss reflects unhappiness with Ma’s leadership, the pundits said.

  The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) said Yeh’s loss was Ma’s first no-confidence vote. It also predicted the KMT would suffer a setback in the Yunlin County legislative by-election later this month.

  Others ask whether Yeh’s loss indicated the beginning of the “post-Ma Ying-jeou era.”

  Yeh resigned from the ministry on Aug. 3 amid mounting speculation that Ma wanted him to stand in the party primary, but despite criticism that he was quitting in the face of a widening swine flu threat.

  The KMT nominated former Hualien County Agricultural Development Office director Tu Li-hua (杜麗華) following Yeh’s defeat. Complicating the issue is the refusal of KMT Legislator Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁) and Hualien County Deputy Commissioner Chang Chih-ming (張志明) to give up bids for the Hualien County commissioner race.

  Chang said he has the backing of Hualien County Commissioner Hsieh Shen-san (謝深山). Fu, however, enjoys widespread support and has topped several opinion polls.

  The KMT excluded Fu from the party primary because he has a criminal record. He was convicted in May 2003 for speculating in Taiwan Pineapple Group shares in 1998 and an appeal is pending.

  Wang Yeh-lih (王業立), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said Yeh’s defeat posed a threat to Ma’s leadership and could create a domino effect.

  “It indicates a decline in Ma’s leadership and popularity, especially after Typhoon Morakot,” he said, adding that some candidates had taken down posters or billboards featuring them with Ma.

  As Ma is set to take over the KMT chairmanship next month, Wang said, the first hurdle he will face will be to prevent a split in the December elections.

  Apart from Hualien, Taitung, Taoyuan and Hsinchu candidates are experiencing similar problems, he said.

  The DPP could stand a good chance of winning some seats if Ma cannot convince other hopefuls to stand down.

  “The political landscape will change dramatically if Ma fails in this task,” Wang said. “In a sense, it marks the beginning of the ‘post-Ma’ era, but it is still too early to tell.”

  Ma will face a strong challenge to his leadership of the party if it wins fewer than 10 seats in city and county elections, Wang said.

  Describing Yeh’s defeat as a warning, Wang said that although it was right for Ma to nominate someone with a clean reputation and national recognition, he failed to take Hualien’s peculiar political culture into account.

  “Previous elections have taught both the pan-blue and pan-green camps that Hualien residents prefer someone who is local and spends time providing services to them,” Wang said. “Yeh’s defeat shows the KMT’s long-term indifference to cultivating local talent.”

  Institute for National Development executive director Leou Chia-feng (柳嘉峰) said the DPP faced the same dilemma, citing the example of former Straits Exchange Foundation vice chairman Michael You (游盈隆), a Hualien native who failed three times in his bid to become county commissioner.

  “As the DPP does not have the assets to compete with the KMT, its candidates must be eminent and have local connections or they do not stand a chance,” Leou said.

  Although Ma’s selection of Yeh was a “good effort,” his sinking approval rating played a role in Yeh’s debacle, Leou said.

  Yeh’s hesitation in resigning from the health department and a change of primary rules also took their toll, not to mention that he spent little time campaigning in the run-up to the primary, Leou said.

  While it was too early to say if Yeh’s defeat marked the beginning of the “post-Ma Ying-jeou era,” Leou said it did reflect the disdain of local factions over Ma’s nominating style.

  Local factions would only cooperate with Ma if they benefit from it, Leou said, adding that Ma could gradually win them over once he becomes KMT chairman because he will have more resources at his disposal.

  “Ma is still in the trial and error stage as party chairman,” Leou said. “One thing is certain, however. He must make compromises if he wishes to strike a balance between taking care of the interests of local factions and his own.”

  One way to pacify Fu and Hsieh would be to dish out favors, Leou said, including offering jobs.

  “But then again, this is nothing new,” he said. “We see this happen every four years.”

  Nanhua University professor Wang Szu-wei (王思為) said Yeh’s defeat showed Ma had failed to use his personal charm to overcome local factions.

  “He thought he could duplicate the Taipei City model, but he failed to realize the city has its own political culture,” Wang Szu-wei said.
• Most Popular

  • 1

    Chinese technicians join airport MRT project

  • 2

    A train for whom? Is a new monorail helpful for Cairo?

  • 3

    Apple is giving Intel’s turnaround some momentum

  • 4

    Taiwan firms eye Philippines amid shift to non-China supply chains: CIER

  • 5

    Taiwan wants bilingual, AI-ready graduates — but tests for yesteryear