Whether China’s economic development will lead to democratization hinges on how Beijing tackles its increasing social instability, a local expert on Chinese affairs said at an international forum yesterday.
Ming Chu-cheng (明居正), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said the real number of incidents of social unrest outnumbered those recorded in official data, adding that the number of incidents were growing between 18 percent and 25 percent a year.
“I suspect China will see a lot of conflict over the next five years,” Ming said. “They could be as dramatic as those that happened in Eastern Europe or the Soviet Union. It would be hard to imagine what would happen should large-scale social unrest occur.”
Ming made the remarks during the final day of the International Seminar on China’s 30 Years of Economic Policy Reform. The two-day event was organized by the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research and the Mainland Affairs Council.
Taiwan saw social unrest under the former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) administration, Ming said, but the authoritarian regime opted to make concessions and democratize.
“Heavy-handed suppression can maintain social order for a while, but it does not last long,” he said. “Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union are two perfect examples.”
It took two years for the Soviet Union to collapse and it took Romania only 10 days, Ming said, adding that public displeasure was the main cause of their downfall.
“The accumulated power of public discontent must not be ignored,” he said. “I firmly believe totalitarianism is doomed to fail. Problems are bound to occur when political rule clashes with human nature, and China is no exception.”
Chen Chih-jou (陳志柔), a sociology researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Academia Sinica, said that his study showed that China’s social disturbances would not lead to its collapse or democratization.
Chen, however, said that the data he relied on for his study were unreliable.
Yuan Zhijia (苑志佳), an economics professor at Rissho University in Tokyo, said that China may follow the development model of Asia’s four economic “tigers”: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
In other words, China’s economy will continue to grow under authoritarianism, Yuan said. It remains to be seen, however, whether economic development will lead to democratization, he said. He said that China was likely to develop into a country with a complete market economy in the near future.
Yuan said it was hard to predict what kind of capitalism China’s economy would develop into, as countries have different models because of their unique histories.
The US and the UK have “market capitalism” with the government acting as an “invisible hand” in the free and competitive market. France and Germany have “state-led capitalism” where the market economy and the role of government are equally important. Japan and South Korea have so-called “big business-based capitalism,” in which large business conglomerates play the dominating role.
Sweden’s capitalism is “social democratic capitalism” where there are high welfare, strong human rights and high taxes, Yuan said.
FINAL COUNTDOWN: About 50,000 attended a pro-recall rally yesterday, while the KMT and the TPP plan to rally against the recall votes today Democracy activists, together with arts and education representatives, yesterday organized a motorcade, while thousands gathered on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei in the evening in support of tomorrow’s recall votes. Recall votes for 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu City mayor Ann Kao (高虹安) are to be held tomorrow, while recall votes for seven other KMT lawmakers are scheduled for Aug. 23. The afternoon motorcade was led by the Spring Breeze Culture and Arts Foundation, the Tyzen Hsiao Foundation and the Friends of Lee Teng-hui Association, and was joined by delegates from the Taiwan Statebuilding Party and the Taiwan Solidarity
Instead of threatening tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, the US should try to reinforce cooperation with Taiwan on semiconductor development to take on challenges from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a Taiwanese think tank said. The administration of US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board import duties of 32 percent on Taiwan-made goods and levy a separate tariff on semiconductors, which Taiwan is hoping to avoid. The Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), a National Science and Technology Council think tank, said that US efforts should focus on containing China’s semiconductor rise rather than impairing Taiwan. “Without
An SOS message in a bottle has been found in Ireland that is believed to have come from the Taiwanese captain of fishing vessel Yong Yu Sing No. 18 (永裕興18號), who has been missing without a trace for over four years, along with nine Indonesian crew members. The vessel, registered to Suao (蘇澳), went missing near Hawaii on Dec. 30, 2020. The ship has since been recovered, but the 10 crew members have never been found. The captain, surnamed Lee (李), is believed to have signed the note with his name. A post appeared on Reddit on Tuesday after a man
The National Museum of Taiwan Literature is next month to hold an exhibition in Osaka, Japan, showcasing the rich and unique history of Taiwanese folklore and literature. The exhibition, which is to run from Aug. 10 to Aug. 20 at the city’s Central Public Hall, is part of the “We Taiwan” at Expo 2025 series, highlighting Taiwan’s cultural ties with the international community, National Museum of Taiwan Literature director Chen Ying-fang (陳瑩芳) said. Folklore and literature, among Taiwan’s richest cultural heritages, naturally deserve a central place in the global dialogue, Chen said. Taiwan’s folklore would be immediately apparent at the entrance of the