As early as December, Minister of Foreign Affairs Tien Hung-mao (
"I decline to comment on that," Tien said at the Legislative Yuan in December -- clapping his hands and grinning -- his trademark approach to dealing the press.
"You know I do not take this matter very much to heart," added Tien, squeezing out another grin while looking at the press from behind his thick glasses. It's not clear whether Tien really takes the speculation to heart.
As the reshuffle draws near, however, the scholar-turned-minister of foreign affairs has conscientiously declined to make any direct comment on the sensitive issue.
Although Tien stressed on Tuesday that it will be up to insiders and historians, at a later date, to judge his performance as the minister of foreign affairs, an occupation he described as a "lonely job," insiders and lawmakers generally laud Tien's work.
"He can put things into historical and strategic perspective," said David Lee (李大維), Taiwan's top representative to the EU in Brussels who has also worked as Tien's vice foreign minister for the past nine months.
"Although it's impossible for him to be as good at mastering operational details as those who have worked in the diplomatic field for decades, I really admire his ability to grasp key directions and orientations," he added.
A ministry official said, on condition of anonymity, "he is a man with vision. He has spent his life studying international relations, and this background has enabled him to offer insightful analysis of big issues."
Born into a poor family in Tainan in 1938, Tien completed a Ph.D. in political science in 1968 and then spent decades teaching in Wisconsin. He has also penned a number of authoritative and widely published papers on Taiwan's democratization as well as US policy toward Taiwan and China.
Sources say his abilities as a political scientist have helped him make important personal connections with the world's opinion makers, including US Vice President Dick Cheney.
From 1996 to 2000, he was the president of the Taipei-based Institute for National Policy Research, which is involved in international seminars on regional security issues and China's transformation.
"In essence, he is a scholar and doesn't like grandstanding. He has, however, visited many countries that do not recognize Taiwan in a very low-key style," said KMT legislator Douglas Hung (
Tien's destinations include the US, France, Belgium, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Jordan, Australia, Thailand and Indonesia.
On his trip to France, Tien said the visit was the result of the French government's "high level of trust in him."
"[I was able to make the trip] because I agreed not to make any public statements," Tien said. "I hope in the future that both my successors and even my superiors, when necessary, will emulate this approach."
But insiders have said Tien's professional and seemingly ineffable judgment -- based on his background and information from subordinates -- may ultimately fail him because the decision-making process behind Taiwan's major foreign-policy moves isn't necessarily "sensible."
For instance, when the debate over Taiwan's participation in the Shanghai APEC summit raged last year, Tien was forced take the role of "a chessmaster" as ministries and government agencies competed to gain influence, an anonymous insider said.
Tien admitted that legislative and media scrutiny, as well as executive-branch influences, have at times restricted the ministry's room to maneuver.
A veteran lawmaker, however, expressed reservations about Tien's performance as a low-key minister. "He is working hard, but somehow the public impression is that he hasn't done much, even though he hasn't made any serious mistakes," the lawmaker said, who declined to be named.
"With Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization, for example, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seemed to let the Ministry of Economic Affairs enjoy the spotlight. Tien could have been a bit more aggressive in trying to say out loud that his ministry was ready to utilize the WTO platform to promote Taiwan's diplomacy," the source said.
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