Tue, Nov 13, 2001 page3

• DPP may lose its hold on the Taoyuan County seat

  UNDER THREAT Voters upset with the ailing economy may turn over to the KMT the county commissioner's seat that once belonged to Vice President Annette Lu

  • By Crystal Hsu / STAFF REPORTER
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  Growing discontent among the public about the sagging economy may cost the DPP its hold on the commissioner's seat in Taoyuan County on Dec. 1, political analysts say.

  The seat once held by Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) before she became vice president last year has been held by the DPP since early 1997.

  But recent polls put KMT nominee Chu Li-luan (朱立倫) far ahead of the DPP's Perng Shaw-jiin (彭紹瑾) by 10 to 18 percentage points.

  Independent Chuang Chih-chung (莊志忠), meanwhile, is trailing way behind his rivals.

  Political analysts say the struggling economy is giving the Chu campaign a boost, as voters are unimpressed with acting commissioner Hsu Ing-shen (許應深), who lost the DPP's nomination to run in the race.

  "There is strong public sentiment in northern Taiwan against the DPP government because of the economic downturn and rising unemployment," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a political scientist at Soochow University. "Fair or not, the backlash is harming DPP candidates in the year-end elections."

  It's the economy

  Home to seven industrial parks, the county of 1.7 million residents has an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent, slightly higher than the national average of 5.26 percent.

  Chu, 40, who holds a PhD in accounting, says the Dec. 1 elections are a referendum on the DPP's economic performance.

  "Taoyuan used to be the largest county in terms of industrial output," Chu said. "Now the ranking is sliding, with the annual volume shrinking by 20 percent."

  If elected, Chu promises to create at least 10,000 job opportunities within a year.

  In March 1997, Lu took the commissioner's seat in a landslide victory in an election that followed the execution-style killing of her predecessor, Liu Pang-yu (劉邦友), along with seven others the previous November.

  Lu won a full four-year term in November 1997.

  Aware that Chu is still new to politics, strategists have touted his squeaky-clean image while portraying him as the boy next door.

  He began his political career in 1998, winning the right to represent his home county in the legislature.

  Since April, Chu has been on the campaign trail, criss-crossing the county with an eye toward expanding his grassroots support and becoming more familiar with local affairs.

  "It is not fair to measure Chu's grasp of the county by the length of his political career," said Chen Feng-hsin (陳鳳馨), spokeswoman for his campaign. "His family and clan have been involved in local politics for more than four decades."

  That background gives Chu the preparation he needs to serve well in office, she said.

  Unfulfilied promises

  By contrast, the lethargic state of the economy has put the DPP's Perng in a predicament. He is walking a tightrope between selling his reform agenda and defending the incumbent administration -- both at the local and national level.

  "If elected, I will strive to make Taoyuan a safer and cleaner place to live, though the county does not suffer from a particular lack of law and order," Perng said.

  Perng, 44, a two-term lawmaker, also takes pride in his character and professional expertise.

  Perng has a PhD in law and worked as a prosecutor for nearly a decade before entering the legislature in 1995.

  Perng's campaign staff have put forward a sweeping, though vague, program to overhaul the county's industrial, environmental and educational policies, among other things. Aides attributed his lag in the polls to Lu's failure to make good on her campaign promises when serving as commissioner.

  Lu had vowed to turn Taoyuan's garbage into "gold" and its coastlines into tourist attractions before she was elected vice president last year.

  "The absence of progress in those undertakings has seriously harmed the county government's credibility," said Chou Wei-yu (周威佑), Perng's chief campaigner.

  Not surprisingly, approval ratings for acting commissioner Hsu hover at around 35 percent, with many respondents unwilling to pass judgement.

  "The circumstances make it difficult for Perng to find the teeth for his campaign," Sheng, the political professor, said. "Also, he does not have the edge most DPP candidates enjoy -- toughness, eloquence and a more conservative and less articulate competitor."

  Still, it's swing voters -- most of whom are People First Party (PFP) supporters -- that will hold the sway over the election outcome.

  Polls indicate that the PFP leads the pack in popular support in this county where Hakka people constitute about 40 percent of the population.

  An ethnic hakka

  The demographic make-up doesn't benefit Perng, also ethnic Hakka, as past elections show this group tends to favor non-DPP candidates.

  Already, a large number of PFP supporters have rallied behind the Chu campaign after the party pulled out of the race last month.

  Last Wednesday, PFP Secretary-General David Chung (鍾榮吉) confirmed the party's intent to endorse Chu, though fellow lawmakers have long voiced support for their KMT colleague.

  As for voters born in China, the Perng camp has had trouble entering their communities, which account for up to 20 percent of the constituency. Known for their pro-unification stance, they distrust candidates with separatist leaning.

  "No matter how hard I try, they will not vote for me," Perng said.Also See Interviews
  

  Dec .1 elections: Chu duke it out in Taoyuan
  

  Dec. 1 elections: Perng duke it out in Taoyuan
  
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