One of the more intriguing aspects of the Bush administration's arms sales package for Taiwan is the inclusion of up to eight diesel-powered submarines. The submarines were at the top of the Taiwan navy's wish list, even above the AEGIS equipped destroyers, but up until recently Washington analysts doubted that the sales would include those vessels.
The problem is that the US has not made a diesel submarine for more than 40 years. The big question in Washington on Tuesday, the day after the sales package was made known, was, "who will build them?"
Several news reports in recent years in Taipei and elsewhere have named Germany and the Netherlands as possible sources of the submarines. But both governments have effectively banned such sales for fear of alienating China.
One recent idea circulating in Washington has been that the vessels could be built by Litton Ingalls Shipbuilding, a subsidiary of the giant defense contractor, Northrop Grumman, in Pascagoula, Mississippi, the home of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott.
But Lott on Tuesday played down that idea. "We don't build submarines at Pascagoula," he said, noting that the shipyard did make the four Kidd-class destroyers Bush agreed to sell, and builds the AEGIS equipped destroyers that he did not agree to sell.
Litton Ingalls built the US' last diesel submarine in 1960.
"This is the beginning of the process. And, obviously, the United States would not have indicated they would be available to provide to Taiwan if we didn't believe that we had the means to secure their production. The United States is confident that's an addressable point," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.
"I don't know the answer to the question yet," conceded Rear Admiral Craig Quigley, Pentagon spokesman. "There are a variety of designs available in the world today."
The Dutch have been trying to sell Taiwan submarines for two decades.
In 1981, the Dutch shipyard, Wilton Fijenoord, sold Taiwan two Chien Lung/Hai Lung submarines, which constitute half of the Taiwan submarine fleet. As a result, China withdrew its ambassador and downgraded diplomatic relations for three years.
In 1992, the Dutch government rejected a proposal by the shipyard, Rotterdamsche Droogdok Maatschappji (RDM) to sell Taiwan up to six subs, and the government has refused to allow sales to Taiwan ever since. Dutch journalists in Washington doubt that the Dutch government would ever allow such sales in the face of potential threats from Beijing.
What may have sparked the current speculation about Dutch submarines is that RDM is now negotiating with the Egyptian navy to sell vessels that would be built at Litton Ingalls under RDM design. The Egyptians approached Litton Ingalls late last year to have it build two RDM Moray class submarines, and the sides are still in negotiations, says Randy Belote, Litton Ingalls' Washington spokesman. They are still in negotiations, he said.
Regarding Taiwan, "we have not entered into any formal discussions with the US government or Taiwan relative to recent reports," Belote said. He would not comment on whether informal talks are taking place.
Belote said no deals with Germany are in the works. For several years in the 1990s, Germany's shipyard Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) tried to arrange the sale of Type 209 subs to Egypt to be built at Litton Ingalls from HDW-built and supplied kits.
In any event, Germany has also blocked submarine sales to Taiwan, and it is doubtful it would change its stance now, observers say.
Ironically, in the early 1990s, the US Navy was actively interfering with US shipbuilders' attempt to build and export diesel subs, and Congress had to direct it to stop the practice. It was Richard Cheney, then Defense Secretary, who was in favor of the exports, and who told the navy leadership not to fight Congress on the issue, according to trade reports at the time.
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