The two coups in quick succession were disturbing, "reminders of the many sources of instability now simmering in the southwest Pacific," the New Zealand Herald observed on June 6 as violence in Fiji and the Solomon Islands broke out.
The June coup, as well as the two-year ethnic conflict in the Solomon Islands, also planted the seeds for a three-way diplomatic battle between the Solomon Islands, Taiwan -- its ally for 17 years -- and China.
Frustrated by Taiwan's reluctance to provide a financial aid package of around US$60 million, the Solomon Islands' foreign minister Danny Philip canceled a scheduled trip to Taiwan for national day celebrations.
PHOTO: AFP
Philip then traveled to Hong Kong where he met with Chinese officials to discuss a financial deal that would entail cutting links with Taiwan.
China's foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan (唐家璇) told Philip by phone that it was necessary for the country to accept the "one China" principle -- and dump Taiwan -- before it was eligible to receive cash from China, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) officials said.
Although the Solomons' Cabinet said last Wednesday that ties with Taipei remained "intact" after reviewing the pros and cons of its choice between Taiwan and China, a subsequent press release raised eyebrows in Taiwan.
who is to blame?
Though the statement confirmed the Cabinet's decision, it also said Taiwan was to blame for the diplomatic muddle that erupted, citing as a cause the "inexperience" of Minister of Foreign Affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂).
Despite the country's apology, as well as Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare's announcement the next day of his plan to visit Taiwan later this month to mend ties, analysts and lawmakers said it was premature to be optimistic about relations between Taiwan and the Solomons.
China's aim to expand its sphere of influence in the South Pacific islands region, its attempts to lure Taiwan's 29 allies into dumping Taipei, as well as instability in the Solomons, are all factors contributing to what analysts say are "shaky" ties between the two countries.
A paper released last Friday by Stratfor Inc, an US-based private intelligence-analysis firm, argued that China has increased its diplomatic activities in the Pacific in order to control certain strategic choke points in the area -- a move that may intensify pressure on Taiwan to maintain its ties in the region.
"The Pacific islands are economically and militarily irrelevant, but geographically significant. Influence over the islands means influence over the sea-lands between the US and the western Pacific, including Australia. Increased Chinese diplomatic activity in the Pacific brings the possibility of an increased military presence," the paper argued.
If the Solomons decided to switch to Beijing, it would be a diplomatic setback for Taiwan. A change in the status quo would continue the trend in Chinese diplomatic policy of "an increased focus on the Pacific islands," the paper stated.
"The Pacific islands sit astride key shipping and naval routes, especially those between Australia and the US. A military presence on several of these islands could guard access to Australia and the South Pacific," the paper said.
Apart from China's recent move to lure the Solomons away from Taiwan, China has already invested "increasingly" in Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Kiribati.
Though the diplomatic visits and foreign aid China has so far provided to these Pacific countries may not provide it with a base for its military operations, the paper argued that these diplomatic tools "raise the possibility of a deeper involvement."
Foreign ministry officials said the recent rift between the Solomons and Taiwan reflected China's efforts to lure Taiwan's diplomatic allies into its fold.
"But for China's ambition to suppress our diplomatic space, why would China bother to add such a small country into its 160-member family of diplomatic allies?" said Joseph Shih (
Lin Bih-jaw (
Instead, Lin argued, it is the war-torn Pacific country's attempts to grasp as much foreign aid as possible to reconstruct the shattered state that had caused it to move toward China.
"The Solomons took the initiative to talk to China in a bid to ask for money and once that effort failed, it had no choice but to return to Taiwan," Lin said.
The small country, with a population of about 400,000, has suffered economically since an ethnic conflict broke out two years ago between the peoples of the Guadalcanal and Malaita islands in the Solomons.
The situation was exacerbated by the coup in June that removed a democratically elected government under the former Prime Minister Bartholomew Ulufa'alu.
So far, up to two-thirds of the country's civil servants have been "temporarily laid off" because the government has been unable to pay their salary, admitted John Wasi, a counselor at the Solomon Islands Embassy in Taipei.
A paper entitled Economic Impacts of Unrest in the Pacific written by the Secretariat of the South Pacific Forum -- the biggest intergovernmental organization in the Pacific region -- forecasts a gloomy outlook for the country.
"Increased social breakdown and a lack of government services to deal with the consequences of this breakdown and to act as a safety net will leave an enormous job to return the country to its former condition," the paper predicted.
"A deep two or more year recession is likely," the paper said.
national interest
Although two warring militias reached a peace agreement earlier this month, the third in 18 months, critics said there was no way that peace could be guaranteed.
The Solomons' recent flip-flop between Taipei and Beijing is understandable, given the country's situation and its national interests. But Taiwan also has to calculate its national interest cautiously and if the situation is mishandled then a "domino effect" among Taiwan's allies could take place, legislators warned.
"After the Solomons failed to reach a deal with China, it returned to Taiwan and Taiwan decided to retain ties.
"If Taiwan then offers an enormous amount of cash to aid the country, other countries may copy the Solomons' model," said KMT Legislator Chen Shei-saint (陳學聖).
"MOFA should think twice before it decides whether it's worthwhile fighting this diplomatic battle with China by wasting resources to retain ties with such a country," Chen said.
MOFA spokesman Henry Chen (
Despite some public opinion favoring Taiwan severing its ties with the Solomons in the wake of the recent diplomatic fracas, ministry officials said retaining ties were a must.
"Taiwan still needs its diplomatic allies to help with its efforts in entering international organizations such as the United Nations. However small the size of these countries may be, each represents a vote in the UN. It is extremely difficult for Taiwan to win the support of a big country in the UN," Shih said.
Lin predicted Taiwan would continue to retain ties with the Solomons as "numbers count" in terms of Taiwan's diplomatic isolation.
"But if the Solomons goes too far, I believe public opinion is mature enough to support MOFA in cutting links with the country," Lin said.
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