Cheng Lung-ping, (鄭浪平) author of The Intercalary August of 1995 (一九九五閏八月), invited to visit Taiwan by the New Party, gave a press conference yesterday in which he warned of the dangers posed by the continuing stand-off between Taiwan and China and blasted the idea of "offshore engagement," Taiwan's new defense strategy.
New Party Legislator Hsieh Chi-ta (
Cheng argued that Taiwan was now all the more at risk for having a president who "was previously known for promoting the independence of Taiwan for the DPP."
PHOTO: GEORGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMES
Cheng warned that "the stimulation of nationalism among the people of China is irresistible" and might cause war now that the DDP was the ruling party.
He also condemned the government's idea of "offshore engagement" (
Taiwan, remarked Cheng, far from avoiding a comprehensive war, would "lose the war before it starts." China's coastal cities, he said, on the basis of both his own observations and those of Chinese colleagues, had been well prepared by the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Ou Si-fu (
Ou argued that Beijing's priority was to accelerate its economic reforms and improve its international position, which made the Taiwan dispute a relatively minor issue. Moreover, he said the "fourth generation of Chinese communist leaders" from Shanghai, who had benefited from economic reforms and now taken over the reins of power, would not support any war that might damage China's economy. He reckoned that the PLA's conduct was merely designed to make symbolic threats to Taiwan.
Ou further said that Cheng was overly sensitive on the matter, suggesting that he might have been "brainwashed" by the previous (KMT) government into believing that the DPP's claims for Taiwan independence might lead to war. Ou said he believed that the aim of Taiwan independence had been simply a strategy designed to coalesce opposition power against the former KMT regime, an aim which might be shelved now that the DPP has taken over the presidency.
On the question of "offshore engagement" Ou observed that the Chinese military also had its problems,indicating that, comparatively, Taiwan's military would not be as weak as Cheng had suggested.
Chinese legend has it that disasters always strike in intercalary Augusts. The power of this myth was not lost on Cheng, who, seizing the moment in 1995 one year before the "mysterious" month last came round, claimed that a lethal cross-strait war would break out as China appeared stable under Deng Xiao-ping's (
His claim intimidated Taiwan society and triggered a boom in emigration.
Responding to criticism of the "failure" of his earlier "prophecy," Cheng said that he was not trying to supply a time frame for the outbreak of hostilities, but merely seeking to provide a stark reminder of the risks that would come from any attempt by Taiwan to break away from China.
The New Party will hold a panel discussion at the legislature today in order for Cheng to be available for questioning by legislators from all parties.
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