Tue, Jan 25, 2000 page3

• Lien Chan tests the waters for `confederacy'

  CROSS-STRAIT PLATFORM Political observers say that Lien may be shifting more toward reunification

  • By Catherine Sung / STAFF REPORTER
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  KMT presidential candidate and Vice President Lien Chan (連戰) is expected to announce his cross-strait platform this week, according to political observers. Analysts believe that it will emphasize rebuilding dialogue with Beijing rather than establishing any sort of framework for reunification.

  Members of Lien's campaign staff floated a "confederation" model for future cross-strait relations last week, a concept under which both sides of the Taiwan Strait would agree to recognize the sovereignty of the other.

  Lien's campaign staffers have denied that there is any truth to press reports claiming that he supports the idea, saying it appeared to be a misunderstanding caused by some "impatient" campaign staff officials.

  A confederation involves two or more countries that for whatever reason -- whether territorial, commercial or security interests -- form an alliance. The member countries retain their national sovereignty, conduct foreign affairs independently and retain their international status.

  A key difference between a confederacy and a federal system is that the members of a confederacy are bound by a treaty based on international law, while a federal system is based on a single constitution within the confines of a single country.

  Political analysts and national print and TV media have shot down what appears to have been a "trial balloon" -- the floating of an idea unofficially to gauge public reaction.

  Critics said such a model for cross-strait relations is not feasible and also represents a shift away from the model of relations based on the notion of "special state-to-state relations" announced by President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) last July.

  "It's too early to propose actual models for reunification. The emphasis should be placed on interim measures for confidence building and transparency," said Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), a political analyst at National Chengchi University's Institute for International Relations.

  Wu said the confederacy proposal was to an attempt by Lien's camp to find something distinctly different from the "state-to-state" notion that would be more palatable to an international audience, given the negative reaction by the US and other countries to Lee's remarks.

  "Lien is trying to appear more moderate and creative," Wu said.

  Philip Yang (楊永明), a political scientist at National Taiwan University agreed.

  "For the most part, the `state-to-state' declaration has resonance in Taiwan. However, the statement is viewed as provocative by international audiences," Yang said.

  Analysts were skeptical that Beijing would accept a model of confederacy for cross-strait relations.

  "The model has been proposed before, but was put on ice because China finds it unacceptable under its `one country, two systems' principle," Wu said.

  "There is still a lot of ambiguity on what exactly the word `confederation' means," he said.

  Other analysts said the model could be a shift to a more pro-reunification position.

  "Looking at the whole spectrum, the notion is a continuation of the government's policy on reunification," Yang said.

  "There is a lot of flexibility in this model, but it would depend on whether China would accept a confederation under the `one-China' principle," he said.

  However, Lee has already broken the mold of `one-China' with the "two states" declaration, according to analysts.

  "The period of `one-China with each side free to express its opinion' is over," Yang said.

  "Like Washington's `three nos,' Lee's `two states' has become the framework of cross-strait relations and it does not need to be reiterated," Yang said. The three nos mean no to `two Chinas,' no to `one China, one Taiwan' and no to Taiwan's membership in organizations requiring statehood.

  But Lien's position, as stated last week to a New York Times reporter -- that the "state-to-state" declaration does not need to be repeated -- has raised questions over whether there is any truth to claims of a growing rift with President Lee.

  "Lien's challenge is to find a balance between `state-to-state' and the government's policy on reunification," Yang said.
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