Sun, Oct 10, 1999 page3

• Quake relief double-edged sword for Lien

  PRESIDENTIAL RACE Leading the post-quake reconstruction effort has given Lien Chan a short-term advantage, but the long-term effects are anybody's guess

  • By Oliver Lin / STAFF REPORTER
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  The government's 921 earthquake relief efforts have propelled vice president and KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan (連戰) onto center stage for his campaign. But analysts said yesterday that the short-term advantages of being in the spotlight during the reconstruction efforts may become a burden later on.

  After the quake, Lien was given the role of convening the central government's "921 quake relief supervisory task force" (九二一地震救災督導小組), which should normally be the responsibility of the cabinet and headed by Lien's running mate, Vincent Siew (肅萬長). By taking control of the task force Lien has stolen the media spotlight from his opponents, KMT maverick candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) and DPP nominee Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).

  All three major candidates announced they were suspending their election campaigns after the quake hit on Sept. 21. But Lien, who had been trailing the other two major candidates in most opinion polls, has increased his visibility in his capacity as both vice president and task force leader.

  

  Lien Chan, who heads the 921 quake relief supervisory task force, speaks with Puli residents about local relief and reconstruction efforts.

  PHOTO: HAKU HUANG, LIBERTY TIMES

  Lien has been wrongly given a role belonging to the premier, said Herman Chiang (江岷欽), professor and chair at the department of public administration and policy at National Chung Hsing University.

  "It is impossible that this has nothing to do with considerations for the election," he said.

  "It is an opportunity for Lien -- but it could also be a crisis for him," Chiang told members of a panel discussion yesterday, sponsored by the National Development Research Foundation.

  "Taking up the job of disaster relief will perhaps only give a short-term advantage to Lien. In the long term, it is going to hurt, as the relief job is something difficult to do and residents in disaster areas will be hard to please," he said.

  Chou Yi (邱毅), a research fellow at the Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, agreed.

  "Soong and Chen will be negatively affected in the short term," said Chou, who is closely associated with the Soong camp.

  "At the beginning of any crisis people tend to rely on the government. But over time the mismanagement of the crisis will become apparent, and that could reverse Lien's fortune." But some are less optimistic for opposition candidates.

  "It is difficult for Lien not to gain ground," said Lai Shih-bao (賴士葆), a New Party lawmaker.

  "Lien, in his favorable position as a candidate for the ruling party, now has an occasion to spend and spend on disaster relief and please voters, while the opposition candidates have little resources to do much," he said.

  But it is not a hopeless situation for the opposition, he said.

  "The most effective thing Soong and Chen can do is to closely monitor how the government spends money," Lai said. "If they can find and expose anything improper, such as spending money in favor of the KMT's local factions, that will be the best chance for them to win the election."
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