While Burma's (Myanmar) majority Buddhist population follows the Buddhist calendar, it is a date on the Western Calendar that has captured the attention of the nation. No, that date is not related to the Y2K computer bug. It is September 9, 1999 (or 9/9/99) that has become a rallying point for this numerology-obsessed country.
The roots of the "four nines" fever can be found in the mind of Burma's aging dictator, Ne Win. His quirky "Burmese Way to Socialism," begun after a coup in 1962, took the country into xenophobic isolationism, and into a downward economic spiral from which it has never recovered.
Ne Win is known to be highly superstitious, and his lucky number, as every Burmese knows, is "9." In the late 1980's, Ne Win decided to replace the money in circulation. The kyat (NT$1 = approx. 11 kyat) was not to be denominated in 100s and 50s. These bills were replaced with 90 and 45 kyat notes, making Burma the only country in the world to use currency based on 9 rather than 10.
Ne Win also announced a sweeping demonetization, and old bills were declared worthless, wiping out the meagre savings of the Burmese middle class.
Outburst
In 1988, the collapsing economy and the demonetizing scheme of Ne Win led to a national burst of anger. Ne Win's army responded with force, and dozens were brutally killed in the streets. The Burmese came back with even more anger, and in greater numbers, and Ne Win was forced to admit the failure of his policies, and to announce his retirement from politics (though as "The Old Man" he still wields considerable behind-the-scenes power at age 88).
The Burmese public was not satisfied with Ne Win's departure, and the 1988 demonstrations against military rule continued to grow. These reached a peak on Aug. 8, 1988, or 8/8/88, when a national strike brought the nation to a halt, with millions of Burmese from all walks of life taking to the streets. That night, at least 3,000 unarmed Burmese were shot dead in the streets of Rangoon and other Burmese cities, in a cycle of repression that continues today. The Burma democracy movement still refers to itself as the 8/8/88 movement.
Now it looks to 9/9/99 for inspiration. Fast forward 11 years: Ne Win has been replaced by a clique of generals who first called themselves the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) which, in a gross miscalculation, held a national election in May of 1990.
They lost that election overwhelmingly to the National League for Democracy (NLD), which is led by Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of national hero (and former boss to Ne Win) General Aung San. Suu Kyi was honored in 1991 with the Nobel Peace Prize.
The SLORC refused to honor the election they organized and lost, and in response they were made into an international pariah, similar to the apartheid regime in South Africa.
Foreign investment
For several years the SLORC encouraged foreign investment, especially in joint venture deals to extract Burma's rich natural resources. At first the investors came calling, but incompetence, corruption, the Asian financial crisis and international sanctions have completely dried up investment flows.
The junta, now renamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is broke.
It cannot pay for the billions of dollars of weapons it has received from China, Yugoslavia and Singapore. It cannot supply even its capital city with electricity. It has kept the universities closed since December 1996 to avoid unrest.
Only one in three Burmese children finish primary school.
Burma is the world's biggest producer of both heroin and methamphetimine, and drug traffickers have become the best friends of the generals.
The Burmese Army has expanded from 180,000 in 1988 to 450,000 today, but the junta can't pay its soldiers, who are encouraged to "live off the land," meaning to steal what they need from the populace.
More than a million Burmese work illegally abroad, another million have been internally displaced by the army, more than 100,000 huddle in refugee camps in Thailand and Bangladesh.
Forced labor is rampant, leading to Burma's de facto expulsion from the International Labor Organization in June.
As tourism and other investments have collapsed, the junta has increasingly turned to agriculture as its savior, pointing to the "models" of Taiwan and Korea in agriculture-led economic development.
But this effort has been a failure as well, with forced, low procurement prices for crops, bungled irrigation schemes, and more forced labor.
Prices for basic commodities have skyrocketed, with the all-important rice price up more than 60 percent in recent months, in spite of junta intimidation of merchants. Inflation has eaten away at government salaries, so that a mid-level bureaucrat now makes only US$3-4 per month.
Enter 9/9/99. Social conditions are ripe for upheaval. Exiled and underground dissidents have mounted a sophisticated campaign of graffiti, leafletting, and small scale demonstrations. Average Burmese are all talking about 9/9/99, and hoarding of staples has further raised prices.
The junta has responded with more repression, with threats broadcast against anyone who would join a 9/9/99 demonstration. The junta has closed its border with Thailand, ordered all government employees to go to work every day (to keep them from joining demonstrations) through the month of September, shut down the already limited e-mail service, and stopped issuing visas to independent travellers. Already two British citizens have been arrested for peaceful protests, one receiving 17 years in prison in a summary trial.
Predictions
So what will happen? Will the Burmese masses take to the streets on 9/9/99? This seems unlikely, as there is a great chance that at least some junta troops will carry out the inevitable orders to shoot to kill. Yet there is no evidence that the generals have the competence or the will to solve the enormous problems they have caused. Tensions will only increase, and there is a constant vigil, as citizens wait for the moment when they can assert their desire for justice, development and democracy.
A brutal, totalitarian system such as that run by Burma's generals can disintegrate rapidly, once the process of change begins. It is in the interest of all who value freedom, justice, prosperity and stability to hasten the day that the Burmese military's grip on the Burmese people is relaxed. Then the talented millions from that once-rich country can take their rightful places in the world. 9/9/99 is the beginning of the end for Ne Win and his military henchmen. But the end is not yet in sight.
Larry Dohrs is Director of the Trade and Human Rights Project at Global Source Education, a non-profit educational outreach organization in Seattle, USA. He is also a member of the Free Burma Coalition.
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