An expected National Development Council (NDC) report expects the nation’s population to drop below 12 million by 2065, with the old-age dependency ratio to top 100 percent sooner than 2070, sources said yesterday.
The council is slated to release its latest population projections in August, using an ultra-low fertility model, the sources said.
The previous report projected that Taiwan’s population would fall to 14.37 million by 2070, but based on a new estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — the population is expected to reach 12 million by 2065, they said.
Photo: CNA
Meanwhile, the proportion of middle-aged and older workers (people aged 45 to 64) would also be significantly revised upward to more than 60 percent in 2070, from an earlier projection of 55.9 percent, they said.
The previous estimate indicated that the elderly dependency ratio — in which one working-age person supports one elderly person — would not exceed 100 percent until 2070, but under the new projections, that milestone is expected to occur much sooner.
The NDC released its previous population projection report in October 2024, which included three scenarios for the TFR: a high estimate of 1.05 children, a medium estimate of 0.95 and a low estimate of 0.84.
Last year’s actual TFR was 0.695, about 17 percent lower than even the most pessimistic estimate.
An NDC official speaking on condition of anonymity said that the TFR hitting a record low — and declining even faster — would inevitably worsen Taiwan’s population imbalance.
Taiwan last year became a “super-aged society” with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or older.
With the sharp decline in newborns, the proportion of elderly people in the population — and the rate of aging — is expected to rise even faster, the official said.
Based on preliminary calculations using last year’s TFR, elderly people would make up more than half the population well before 2070, when the previous report said they would account for 46.5 percent, with those older than 85 making up 31.4 percent, they said.
For example, when children born last year enter their 40s, they would face enormous pressure due to elderly dependency, the official said.
Without counting support for children, each working-age person would need to bear the responsibility of supporting one elderly person, they said.
The working-age population (those aged 15 to 64) was previously projected to decline from 16.11 million in 2024 to a low estimate of 6.61 million or a medium estimate of 7.76 million by 2070.
However, based on ne data, the inflow of young workers into the labor force over the next 15 years is projected to be about 20 percent lower than anticipated, the official said.
The proportion of middle-aged and older workers is expected to rise even more sharply than the previous forecast that they would account for 51.8 percent of the labor force by 2040 and 55.9 percent of 2070, they said.
The government might have to confront the difficult question of whether to raise the official retirement age, they added.
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