An expected National Development Council (NDC) report expects the nation’s population to drop below 12 million by 2065, with the old-age dependency ratio to top 100 percent sooner than 2070, sources said yesterday.
The council is slated to release its latest population projections in August, using an ultra-low fertility model, the sources said.
The previous report projected that Taiwan’s population would fall to 14.37 million by 2070, but based on a new estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — the population is expected to reach 12 million by 2065, they said.
Photo: CNA
Meanwhile, the proportion of middle-aged and older workers (people aged 45 to 64) would also be significantly revised upward to more than 60 percent in 2070, from an earlier projection of 55.9 percent, they said.
The previous estimate indicated that the elderly dependency ratio — in which one working-age person supports one elderly person — would not exceed 100 percent until 2070, but under the new projections, that milestone is expected to occur much sooner.
The NDC released its previous population projection report in October 2024, which included three scenarios for the TFR: a high estimate of 1.05 children, a medium estimate of 0.95 and a low estimate of 0.84.
Last year’s actual TFR was 0.695, about 17 percent lower than even the most pessimistic estimate.
An NDC official speaking on condition of anonymity said that the TFR hitting a record low — and declining even faster — would inevitably worsen Taiwan’s population imbalance.
Taiwan last year became a “super-aged society” with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or older.
With the sharp decline in newborns, the proportion of elderly people in the population — and the rate of aging — is expected to rise even faster, the official said.
Based on preliminary calculations using last year’s TFR, elderly people would make up more than half the population well before 2070, when the previous report said they would account for 46.5 percent, with those older than 85 making up 31.4 percent, they said.
For example, when children born last year enter their 40s, they would face enormous pressure due to elderly dependency, the official said.
Without counting support for children, each working-age person would need to bear the responsibility of supporting one elderly person, they said.
The working-age population (those aged 15 to 64) was previously projected to decline from 16.11 million in 2024 to a low estimate of 6.61 million or a medium estimate of 7.76 million by 2070.
However, based on ne data, the inflow of young workers into the labor force over the next 15 years is projected to be about 20 percent lower than anticipated, the official said.
The proportion of middle-aged and older workers is expected to rise even more sharply than the previous forecast that they would account for 51.8 percent of the labor force by 2040 and 55.9 percent of 2070, they said.
The government might have to confront the difficult question of whether to raise the official retirement age, they added.
LEVERAGE: China did not ‘need to fire a shot’ to deny Taiwan airspace over Africa when it owns ‘half the continent’s debt,’ a US official said, calling it economic warfare The EU has raised concerns about overflight rights following the delay of President William Lai’s (賴清德) planned state visit to the Kingdom of Eswatini after three African nations denied overflight clearance for his charter at the last minute. Taiwanese allies Paraguay and Saint Kitts and Nevis, as well as several US lawmakers and the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) condemned China for allegedly pressuring the countries. Lai was scheduled to fly directly to Taiwan’s only African ally from yesterday to Sunday to celebrate the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III’s accession and his 58th birthday, but Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar suddenly revoked
The number of pet cats in Taiwan surpassed that of pet dogs for the first time last year, reaching 1,742,033, a 32.8 percent increase from 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday, citing a survey. By contrast, the number of pet dogs declined slightly by 1.2 percent over the same period to 1,462,528, the ministry said. Despite the shift, households with dogs still slightly outnumber those with cats by 1.2 percent. However, while the number of households with multiple dogs has remained relatively stable, households keeping more than two cats have increased, contributing to the overall rise in the feline population. The trend
China on Wednesday teased in a video an aircraft carrier that could be its fourth, and the first using nuclear power, while making an allusion to Taiwan and vowing to further build up its islands, as it looks to boost maritime power, secure resources and bolster territorial claims. The video, issued on the eve of the 77th founding anniversary of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, featured fictional officers with names that are homophones of three commissioned aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (遼寧), Shandong (山東) and Fujian (福建). Titled Into the Deep, it showed a 19-year-old named “Hejian” (何劍) joining the group, sparking
BIG YEAR: The company said it would also release its A12 chip the same year to keep a ‘reliable stream of new silicon technologies’ flowing to its customers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) yesterday said its newest A13 chip is to enter volume production in 2029 as the chipmaker seeks to hold onto its tech leadership and demand for next-generation chips used in artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance-computing (HPC) and mobile applications. TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, also unveiled its A12 chip at its annual technology symposium in Santa Clara, California. The A12 chip, which features TSMC’s super-power-rail technology to provide backside power delivery for AI and HPC applications, is also to enter volume production in 2029, a year after the scheduled release of the A14 chip. The technology moves
RSS