Iran’s negotiating posture has hardened sharply since the war began, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exerting growing influence over decisionmaking, and it would demand significant concessions from the US if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said.
In any talks with the US, Iran would not only demand an end to the war, but concessions that are likely red lines for US President Donald Trump — guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.
Iran would also refuse to negotiate any limitations to its ballistic missile program, they said, an issue that had been a red line for Tehran during the talks that were taking place when the US and Israel launched their attack last month.
Photo: AFP
Trump on Monday said that Washington had already had “very, very strong talks” with Tehran more than three weeks into the war, but Iran has publicly denied this.
The three senior sources said Iran had only had preliminary discussions with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt over whether the groundwork existed for talks with the US over ending the war.
A European official on Monday said that, while there had been no direct negotiations between Iran and the US, Egypt, Pakistan and Gulf states were relaying messages.
A Pakistani official and a second source also said on Monday that direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week.
If any such talks were arranged, Tehran would send Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araqchi to attend, the three Iranian sources said, cautioning that any decisions would ultimately lie with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Three senior Israeli officials yesterday said that, although Trump seemed determined to reach a deal, they viewed it as unlikely that Tehran would agree to US demands, which they believed would include an end to Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
Iran’s use of ballistic missiles and its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas usually flows, have been its most effective responses to the US-Israeli strikes.
It could not agree to give these up without leaving itself defenseless against further attacks, analysts said.
Iranian strategists might also be unwilling to trust to agreements with the US and Israel after coming under attack following an earlier deal last year, despite being involved in talks that were then current. They have also watched Israel continuing to strike Lebanon and Gaza after ceasefires there.
Inside Iran, domestic concerns are also constraining Tehran’s maneuvering room in negotiations, the senior Iranian sources said.
These concerns included the greater clout of the Revolutionary Guards, uncertainty at the top of the system, with the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having not yet appeared in photographs or video since his appointment, and a public narrative of resilience in the war.
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