Two top-ranking former US officials yesterday voiced support for bolstering Taiwan’s military capabilities while acknowledging uncertainty over Washington’s “one China” policy, in a display of a growing rift over the formula in US foreign policy circles.
Retired admiral Mike Mullen, who chaired the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Susan Gordon, former principal deputy director of national intelligence, made the comments in an interview with the Washington Post.
They recently authored a report for US-based think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, which warned that conflict over Taiwan was “increasingly imaginable.”
Photo: Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) orders for China to be prepared to use military force to take over Taiwan by 2027 is a threat that should be taken seriously, Mullen said in response to a question about the matter.
“Xi’s outward statements are very different from his predecessors... He has been very clear that he cannot pass this on. He has told his military to be ready by [that year], etc,” the admiral said.
The Chinese leader has backed up his threats with “a tremendously coercive set of actions from the military standpoint,” including sending warplanes in and around Taiwan or conducting naval blockade exercises, he said.
“The message is loud and clear,” Mullen added.
Asked about the likelihood of a conflict breaking out across the Strait, Mullen said most assessments indicate that Chinese forces are not yet ready to attack Taiwan, but any Chinese leader would resort to force if faced with its loss.
He underscored the importance of Taiwan being strong internally from a defense standpoint, with support from the US and its allies “to make sure that any given day, Xi is deterred and knows that he cannot win it,” he said.
Asked about the report’s recommendation on putting the US defense industry on a war footing immediately, Mullen said the advisory showed “how far we have been in supplying the kind of support ... with respect to [arming] Taiwan over the years.”
As for the research group’s seemingly inability to reach a consensus over whether the US policy of strategic ambiguity ought to be continued, he said: “The fact that we could not and did not come to a consensus is instructive.”
Mullen expressed personal support for the policy in avoiding escalation, but added that the effect of strategic ambiguity on the risks of war might be “overhyped.”
Asked if and when war would happen in Taiwan, Gordon said: “The only person that knows the answer to that question is Xi.”
“What we do know is that he is acting as though he is moving closer to the ability to do it,” she said. “Our interest in the US, Taiwan and our allies is trying to create the condition that [war] is not a decision he makes today.”
Citing a recent visit to Taiwan, Gordon said what she was told by the leadership in Taipei appeared to signal that it cares less about ambiguity or clarity with China than the US “being clear with [its] actions on specific areas” to Taiwan and other regional US allies.
The policy group’s determination is that the US should ensure it is “not being unclear about our interests and what our actions will be around them,” she said.
Separately, retired US air force lieutenant general David Deptula told the Wall Street Journal in a report published yesterday that Taiwanese must “be committed 100 percent” to defend the nation against aggressors, because “if they are not, there is no reason for the US or any nation to come to their aid.”
“There needs to be a sense of urgency,” he said.
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