The US Department of Defense has identified four possible military courses of action that China could take against Taiwan, but did not offer any guess on when Beijing might be ready to act.
In an annual report to the US Congress released on Tuesday titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022, the department gave a broad overview of China’s military capabilities, strategy, ambitions and intentions.
The report devoted significant space to developments related to Taiwan, against which it said China had intensified diplomatic, economic, political and military pressure last year.
Photo: CNA
For example, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted 20 naval exercises simulating the capture of Taiwan last year, up from 13 a year earlier, it said.
Chinese warplanes, including advanced J-16 fighters, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on 240 days last year, it said.
China now has a range of military courses of action it can take against Taiwan, which vary in feasibility and risk, and can be divided into four general categories, the report said.
First, China could attempt to impose an air and maritime blockade to cut off Taiwan’s vital imports, possibly accompanied by missile attacks or the seizure of Taiwan’s outlying islands, in an effort to force its capitulation, the report said.
This would also likely be complemented by electronic warfare, network attacks and information operations “to further isolate Taiwan’s authorities and populace, and control the international narrative of the conflict,” it said.
Second, Beijing could conduct “limited force or coercive operations,” it said.
In this scenario, China would use “computer network or limited kinetic attacks” against political, military or economic infrastructure to induce fear and degrade the confidence of Taiwanese in their leaders, the report said.
In such an operation, PLA special operations forces could also “infiltrate Taiwan and conduct attacks against infrastructure or leadership targets,” it said.
Third, an air and missile campaign involving precision strikes against key government and military targets to degrade Taiwan’s defenses, “neutralize” its leadership or undermine the public’s resolve to resist might be used, the report said.
Fourth would be an actual invasion of Taiwan, it said.
The invasion tactics China would most likely adopt would be a joint island landing campaign, the report said.
That concept envisions a complex, coordinated campaign to establish a beachhead, build up combat power on Taiwan’s shores and seize key targets across the nation, it said.
While China is continuing to build and rehearse these capabilities, a large-scale amphibious invasion is “one of the most complicated and difficult military operations” and would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention, the report said.
“Combined with inevitable force attrition, complexity of urban warfare and potential insurgency, these factors make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political risk for [Chinese President] Xi Jinping (習近平) and the Chinese Communist Party, even assuming a successful landing and breakout,” it said.
Nevertheless, the Pentagon believes that China is already capable of amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion, such as an invasion of Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, 東沙群島) or Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), or of the better-defended islands of Kinmen and Lienchiang counties, it said.
However, even a limited operation would involve significant “and possibly prohibitive” political risks, because it could galvanize independence sentiment in Taiwan and generate powerful international opposition, the report said.
The report did not set out a timeline on when China might take such actions, although it said that China’s goal of accelerating the integrated development of its military by 2027 could give it “a more credible military tool ... to wield as it pursues Taiwan unification.”
LANDMARK: Taiwan and Haiti are set to mark the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations next year, the president said, adding that the two would deepen bilateral ties President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday pledged continued support for Haiti, particularly in food aid and healthcare, as the Caribbean nation faces ongoing social and economic challenges. Speaking at a meeting with Haitian Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Victor Harvel Jean-Baptiste, Lai said Taiwan would step up bilateral cooperation to help improve Haiti’s social infrastructure. Taiwan would continue supporting Haiti through initiatives aimed at improving healthcare, food security and overall development, he said. Taiwan and Haiti are set to mark the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations next year, the president said, adding that the two nations would continue to support each other and deepen bilateral
MONTHS OF WORK: The core mission of Taiwan’s negotiators is to safeguard the national interest, public health and food security, President William Lai said Taiwan is still hoping to reach a deal with the US in ongoing tariff talks after it was not among the first batch of 14 nations to receive tariff notification letters. The US issued its first batch of tariff notification letters on Monday, but Executive Yuan spokeswoman Michelle Lee (李慧芝) yesterday confirmed that Taiwan has yet to receive one. Vice Premier Cheng Li-chun (鄭麗君) and Minister Without Portfolio Yang Jen-ni (楊珍妮), who lead the Office of Trade Negotiations, are in the US negotiating the tariff issue, the Executive Yuan said yesterday. The US in early April announced sweeping tariffs on imported goods, including
‘A SERIOUS THREAT’: Japan has expressed grave concern over the Strait’s security over the years, which demonstrated Tokyo’s firm support for peace in the area, an official said China’s military drills around Taiwan are “incompatible” with peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya said during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi (王毅) on Thursday. “Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is important for the international community, including Japan,” Iwaya told Wang during a meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN-related Foreign Ministers’ Meetings in Kuala Lumpur. “China’s large-scale military drills around Taiwan are incompatible with this,” a statement released by the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday cited Iwaya as saying. The Foreign Ministers’ Meetings are a series of diplomatic
The New York Yankees are to host Taiwanese Heritage Day for the first time this year, the event’s organizer announced on Monday. The annual event, which has been held nearly every year since 2005, has often been hosted by the New York Mets at Citi Field, but this year it would be hosted by the New York Yankees on Sept. 10 at Yankee Stadium, organizer ROF International Sport Marketing wrote on social media. The event, which is being co-organized by the Taiwanese Chambers of Commerce of North America (TCCNA), is one of many cultural events hosted by the Yankees, the announcement said,