It is “highly unlikely” that China would invade Taiwan this autumn, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) told lawmakers yesterday, amid reports of a leaked Russian intelligence document suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is considering doing so.
“I believe this so-called leaked document is part of cognitive warfare targeting Taiwan,” Chen told a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, but stopped short of naming China or Russia.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is scheduled to hold its 20th National Congress this autumn, the party’s main task is to maintain stability, Chen said.
Photo: Peter Lo, Taipei Times
It is therefore extremely unlikely that China would invade Taiwan at that time, he said.
Xi is widely expected to secure a third five-year term as the head of the CCP at the congress, and embark on a reshuffle that could see top party leaders replaced.
The alleged document was made public last week by Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin.
According to the letter, which Osechkin said was from an intelligence officer in the Russian Federal Security Service, Xi was “considering taking over Taiwan in the fall ... as he needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term.”
However, “after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity has been closed” to Xi, which now gives the “United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with its competitors on favorable terms,” the letter said.
The military said it has no comment when asked about the document.
Chen told lawmakers that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for the democratic world to be more alert to the threats posed by authoritarian countries like Russia and China.
Unlike Europe and the US, which have an existing collective security system, East Asia does not have a similar mechanism and cannot mount a swift response if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Chen said.
However, the US’ Taiwan Relations Act commits Washington to providing Taipei with the means to defend itself, which can serve as a legal basis for the US to assist Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, he said.
Chen added that he does not see China adopting a “reunification law,” as it would put too much pressure on Beijing to set a timetable for bringing Taiwan under its control, which could severely raise tensions.
China has not officially proposed such legislation, which would be a follow-up to its passage of the Anti-Secession Law in 2005 giving Beijing the legal basis for military action should Taiwan secede or consider seceding from China.
However, it has been discussed in state media. Asked about a political adviser’s suggestion that such a law be enacted, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office last week said that it would “carefully listen to, and study opinions and suggestions.”
Adopting a reunification law would be “equivalent to setting a timetable,” Chen said. “In the past, during the Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) era, they tried to set a timetable, but in the end thought it best not to, as it would put pressure on them.”
Additional reporting by Reuters
EUROPEAN TARGETS: The planned Munich center would support TSMC’s European customers to design high-performance, energy-efficient chips, an executive said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, yesterday said that it plans to launch a new research-and-development (R&D) center in Munich, Germany, next quarter to assist customers with chip design. TSMC Europe president Paul de Bot made the announcement during a technology symposium in Amsterdam on Tuesday, the chipmaker said. The new Munich center would be the firm’s first chip designing center in Europe, it said. The chipmaker has set up a major R&D center at its base of operations in Hsinchu and plans to create a new one in the US to provide services for major US customers,
The Ministry of Transportation and Communications yesterday said that it would redesign the written portion of the driver’s license exam to make it more rigorous. “We hope that the exam can assess drivers’ understanding of traffic rules, particularly those who take the driver’s license test for the first time. In the past, drivers only needed to cram a book of test questions to pass the written exam,” Minister of Transportation and Communications Chen Shih-kai (陳世凱) told a news conference at the Taoyuan Motor Vehicle Office. “In the future, they would not be able to pass the test unless they study traffic regulations
GAINING STEAM: The scheme initially failed to gather much attention, with only 188 cards issued in its first year, but gained popularity amid the COVID-19 pandemic Applications for the Employment Gold Card have increased in the past few years, with the card having been issued to a total of 13,191 people from 101 countries since its introduction in 2018, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday. Those who have received the card have included celebrities, such as former NBA star Dwight Howard and Australian-South Korean cheerleader Dahye Lee, the NDC said. The four-in-one Employment Gold Card combines a work permit, resident visa, Alien Resident Certificate (ARC) and re-entry permit. It was first introduced in February 2018 through the Act Governing Recruitment and Employment of Foreign Professionals (外國專業人才延攬及雇用法),
‘A SURVIVAL QUESTION’: US officials have been urging the opposition KMT and TPP not to block defense spending, especially the special defense budget, an official said The US plans to ramp up weapons sales to Taiwan to a level exceeding US President Donald Trump’s first term as part of an effort to deter China as it intensifies military pressure on the nation, two US officials said on condition of anonymity. If US arms sales do accelerate, it could ease worries about the extent of Trump’s commitment to Taiwan. It would also add new friction to the tense US-China relationship. The officials said they expect US approvals for weapons sales to Taiwan over the next four years to surpass those in Trump’s first term, with one of them saying