It is “highly unlikely” that China would invade Taiwan this autumn, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) told lawmakers yesterday, amid reports of a leaked Russian intelligence document suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is considering doing so.
“I believe this so-called leaked document is part of cognitive warfare targeting Taiwan,” Chen told a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, but stopped short of naming China or Russia.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is scheduled to hold its 20th National Congress this autumn, the party’s main task is to maintain stability, Chen said.
Photo: Peter Lo, Taipei Times
It is therefore extremely unlikely that China would invade Taiwan at that time, he said.
Xi is widely expected to secure a third five-year term as the head of the CCP at the congress, and embark on a reshuffle that could see top party leaders replaced.
The alleged document was made public last week by Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin.
According to the letter, which Osechkin said was from an intelligence officer in the Russian Federal Security Service, Xi was “considering taking over Taiwan in the fall ... as he needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term.”
However, “after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity has been closed” to Xi, which now gives the “United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with its competitors on favorable terms,” the letter said.
The military said it has no comment when asked about the document.
Chen told lawmakers that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for the democratic world to be more alert to the threats posed by authoritarian countries like Russia and China.
Unlike Europe and the US, which have an existing collective security system, East Asia does not have a similar mechanism and cannot mount a swift response if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Chen said.
However, the US’ Taiwan Relations Act commits Washington to providing Taipei with the means to defend itself, which can serve as a legal basis for the US to assist Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, he said.
Chen added that he does not see China adopting a “reunification law,” as it would put too much pressure on Beijing to set a timetable for bringing Taiwan under its control, which could severely raise tensions.
China has not officially proposed such legislation, which would be a follow-up to its passage of the Anti-Secession Law in 2005 giving Beijing the legal basis for military action should Taiwan secede or consider seceding from China.
However, it has been discussed in state media. Asked about a political adviser’s suggestion that such a law be enacted, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office last week said that it would “carefully listen to, and study opinions and suggestions.”
Adopting a reunification law would be “equivalent to setting a timetable,” Chen said. “In the past, during the Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) era, they tried to set a timetable, but in the end thought it best not to, as it would put pressure on them.”
Additional reporting by Reuters
FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION: The UK would continue to reinforce ties with Taiwan ‘in a wide range of areas’ as a part of a ‘strong unofficial relationship,’ a paper said The UK plans to conduct more freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Lammy told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. British Member of Parliament Desmond Swayne said that the Royal Navy’s HMS Spey had passed through the Taiwan Strait “in pursuit of vital international freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.” Swayne asked Lammy whether he agreed that it was “proper and lawful” to do so, and if the UK would continue to carry out similar operations. Lammy replied “yes” to both questions. The
SECOND SPEECH: All political parties should work together to defend democracy, protect Taiwan and resist the CCP, despite their differences, the president said President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday discussed how pro-Taiwan and pro-Republic of China (ROC) groups can agree to maintain solidarity on the issue of protecting Taiwan and resisting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The talk, delivered last night at Taoyuan’s Hakka Youth Association, was the second in a series of 10 that Lai is scheduled to give across Taiwan. Citing Taiwanese democracy pioneer Chiang Wei-shui’s (蔣渭水) slogan that solidarity brings strength, Lai said it was a call for political parties to find consensus amid disagreements on behalf of bettering the nation. All political parties should work together to defend democracy, protect Taiwan and resist
By refusing to agree spending increases to appease US President Donald Trump, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez threatened to derail a summit that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte needs to run smoothly for the sake of the military alliance’s future survival. Ahead of yesterday’s gathering in The Hague, Netherlands, things were going off the rails. European officials have expressed irritation at the spoiler role that Sanchez is playing when their No. 1 task is to line up behind a pledge to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP. Rutte needed to keep Spain in line while preventing others such as Slovakia
SHIFT PRIORITIES: The US should first help Taiwan respond to actions China is already taking, instead of focusing too heavily on deterring a large-scale invasion, an expert said US Air Force leaders on Thursday voiced concerns about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) missile capabilities and its development of a “kill web,” and said that the US Department of Defense’s budget request for next year prioritizes bolstering defenses in the Indo-Pacific region due to the increasing threat posed by China. US experts said that a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan is risky and unlikely, with Beijing more likely to pursue coercive tactics such as political warfare or blockades to achieve its goals. Senior air force and US Space Force leaders, including US Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink and
RSS