China would likely ramp up pressure on Taiwan next year, British historian Niall Ferguson said on Saturday, adding that deterrence is key to warding off Beijing’s threats.
Ferguson made the remarks at a talk organized by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation.
Attending the event virtually, Ferguson, the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said that Beijing would likely increase pressure on Taiwan after the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 20th National Congress concludes in the autumn, when Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is expected to secure a third term as leader.
Photo: CNA
Xi sees bringing Taiwan under Chinese control as the ultimate goal of his leadership, Ferguson said, adding that domestic problems in China, such as a slowing economy and a growing debt problem, has threatened the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule.
In the meantime, China has been facing a backlash from the international community over accusations that it covered up the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan in late 2019, as well as its practice of “wolf-warrior” diplomacy, he added.
The US and its allies should be committed to a credible deterrence strategy that could prevent “China from acting recklessly with respect to Taiwan,” Ferguson said. “Deterrence is key here.”
“And it’s not just the United States that can deter China. It’s the United States and [its] allies,” he said, alluding to countries such as Japan, which has expressed concerns over security and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Ferguson said that a “cold war II” is happening between Washington and Beijing, and that if it “turns hot,” Taiwan would be a hotspot.
Washington could trigger a conflict if it pursues a policy of verbal commitment to Taiwan while continuing its confrontational strategy in its dealings with Beijing, Ferguson said.
It would be a “nightmare scenario” for Taiwan, as the nation would end up “being a battlefield in a battle that the United States is not actually properly prepared to fight,” he added.
“Ultimately in a cold war, there are two superpowers and your relationship with those superpowers is the most important decision you have to make in terms of a foreign policy,” Ferguson said, adding that he believed “Taiwan has an easy choice” to make on the issue.
While commending Taiwan’s efforts to fight off China’s information warfare campaign, Ferguson said that Taiwan “does not really have a particularly compelling self-defense strategy at this point” to counter growing military threats from China, citing his recent discussions at the Hoover Institution with Taiwanese military experts.
“It [Taiwan] is far from being a porcupine,” he said, a reference to reports by Western media last year that Taiwanese and US policymakers had been pursuing a “porcupine strategy” of increased coastal defenses and cruise missiles.
RESPONSE: The transit sends a message that China’s alignment with other countries would not deter the West from defending freedom of navigation, an academic said Canadian frigate the Ville de Quebec and Australian guided-missile destroyer the Brisbane transited the Taiwan Strait yesterday morning, the first time the two nations have conducted a joint freedom of navigation operation. The Canadian and Australian militaries did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Ministry of National Defense declined to confirm the passage, saying only that Taiwan’s armed forces had deployed surveillance and reconnaissance assets, along with warships and combat aircraft, to safeguard security across the Strait. The two vessels were observed transiting northward along the eastern side of the Taiwan Strait’s median line, with Japan being their most likely destination,
GLOBAL ISSUE: If China annexes Taiwan, ‘it will not stop its expansion there, as it only becomes stronger and has more force to expand further,’ the president said China’s military and diplomatic expansion is not a sole issue for Taiwan, but one that risks world peace, President William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday, adding that Taiwan would stand with the alliance of democratic countries to preserve peace through deterrence. Lai made the remark in an exclusive interview with the Chinese-language Liberty Times (sister paper of the Taipei Times). “China is strategically pushing forward to change the international order,” Lai said, adding that China established the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, launched the Belt and Road Initiative, and pushed for yuan internationalization, because it wants to replace the democratic rules-based international
The National Development Council (NDC) yesterday unveiled details of new regulations that ease restrictions on foreigners working or living in Taiwan, as part of a bid to attract skilled workers from abroad. The regulations, which could go into effect in the first quarter of next year, stem from amendments to the Act for the Recruitment and Employment of Foreign Professionals (外國專業人才延攬及僱用法) passed by lawmakers on Aug. 29. Students categorized as “overseas compatriots” would be allowed to stay and work in Taiwan in the two years after their graduation without obtaining additional permits, doing away with the evaluation process that is currently required,
RELEASED: Ko emerged from a courthouse before about 700 supporters, describing his year in custody as a period of ‘suffering’ and vowed to ‘not surrender’ Former Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) was released on NT$70 million (US$2.29 million) bail yesterday, bringing an end to his year-long incommunicado detention as he awaits trial on corruption charges. Under the conditions set by the Taipei District Court on Friday, Ko must remain at a registered address, wear a GPS-enabled ankle monitor and is prohibited from leaving the country. He is also barred from contacting codefendants or witnesses. After Ko’s wife, Peggy Chen (陳佩琪), posted bail, Ko was transported from the Taipei Detention Center to the Taipei District Court at 12:20pm, where he was fitted with the tracking
RSS