Taiwan is bracing for more Chinese military patrols next year, after incursions by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) more than doubled this year, fueling concern about a clash between the region’s big powers.
Since January, Chinese warplanes have made about 950 forays into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), Ministry of National Defense data showed, up from about 380 sorties last year, when the ministry began releasing the data amid a sharp rise in such flights.
Tensions could rise further in the coming year, with key events on the political calendars for Taipei and Beijing. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is facing local elections viewed as a bellwether for the next presidential race, while Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is heading toward a party congress in which he is expected to secure a precedent-busting third term in power.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense
“China will send more military airplanes into Taiwan’s ADIZ next year with more intimidating operations,” said Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), director of the Institute for National Policy Research. “The situation in 2022 is worth being concerned about as it’s going to be a turning point.”
The political events increase pressure on Tsai and Xi to show strength and the resolve to respond to perceived provocations.
US President Joe Biden, who has affirmed the US’ commitment to defend Taiwan from any Chinese attack, also has a political incentive to maintain a firm line toward Beijing before congressional mid-term elections.
Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) told lawmakers in October that the closer Chinese planes came to Taiwan, “the stronger we will hit back.”
“China’s quasi-military means are part of its gray-zone tactic to intimidate and coerce Taiwan — it’s a hybrid threat,” said Ou Si-fu (歐錫富), a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, citing other efforts including luring Taiwan’s diplomatic allies away and economic coercion.
“China’s activities in the Strait will increase as its competition with the US intensifies,” Ou added.
The military can handle next year’s expected increase in PLA incursions, Chiu told reporters yesterday during a break in a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee in Taipei.
The armed forces maintain the combat readiness of personnel and equipment at all times with the expectation that the enemy is capable and strong, Chiu said.
On Tuesday, Biden signed the fiscal 2022 US National Defense Authorization Act, which includes provisions recommending that Taiwan be included in next year’s Rim of the Pacific Exercise.
Asked to comment on the act, Chiu said that Taiwan welcomes any aid from foreign governments, but the country’s existing capabilities must be considered before defense cooperation is strengthened.
Additional reporting by Jonathan Chin
SOLIDARITY: A group of European lawmakers condemned China’s aggressive moves, while the foreign minister of Lithuania said Taiwan ‘cannot become a second Ukraine’ A German parliamentary delegation would visit Taiwan in the first week of October, German lawmaker Holger Becker on Monday told visiting Democratic Progressive Party legislators Fan Yun (范雲) and Lin I-chin (林宜瑾) at the Bundestag in Berlin. Asked by Fan whether he is worried about possible reprisals from Beijing, such as banning him and his family from entering China, Becker said he is more interested in visiting Taiwan, as “now is the time for democracies to stand together.” Fan and Lin also met with German officials to exchange views on digital education and governance. Investing in digital infrastructure and protecting equal rights to
‘IRRATIONAL ACTS’: The defense ministry condemned the drills, during which China tested successors to missiles deployed during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996 China yesterday fired several Dongfeng ballistic missiles as it began four days of unprecedented military drills off Taiwan proper following US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei the previous day. On Tuesday, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) said Beijing would “take all necessary measures” in retaliation should Pelosi visit Taiwan during her Asia tour. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from 1:56pm to 4pm fired 11 Dongfeng missiles into waters north, east and south of Taiwan proper, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said. Taiwanese armed forces, using “forward warning and surveillance mechanisms,” monitored the missile tests
ANNEXATION PLANS: Remarks by the Chinese ambassador to France showed that Beijing seeks to normalize genocide, re-education and gulags, a US official said European and US officials condemned comments from Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye (盧沙野), after he on Wednesday said that Taiwanese would be “re-educated” after any annexation by China. In an interview on French television, Lu accused the Democratic Progressive Party of “extremist” propaganda and turning Taiwanese against “reunification” with China. “We will re-educate. I’m sure that the Taiwanese population will again become favorable of the reunification and will become patriots again,” Lu told BFM TV. The term “re-education” has been used to describe Chinese authorities’ treatment of Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang. European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defense Chairwoman
‘SIMULATED ATTACKS’: Ten warships each from China and Taiwan were maneuvering at close quarters in the Taiwan Strait, with some Chinese vessels crossing the median line Taiwan yesterday reiterated that it would not succumb to pressure from Beijing after China carried out its most provocative military drills in decades in retaliation for US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan last week. “We will never bow to pressure. We uphold freedom and democracy, and believe Taiwanese disapprove [of] China’s bullying actions with force and saber rattling at our door,” Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) said yesterday. China had “arrogantly” disrupted regional peace and stability, he said, calling on Beijing to not flex its military muscles. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has also called on the international community to “support
RSS