Enrollment at Taiwanese schools is to decline sharply over the next 16 years, a Ministry of Education report released yesterday said.
The report, which uses historic data and predictive modeling to cover enrollment trends from 2010 to 2036, is used to guide education policy, resource distribution and curriculum plans, it said.
Enrollment at elementary schools is to decline by 16,000 students per year, falling to fewer than 1 million by 2029 and to 923,000 by 2036, it said.
Photo: Hung Mei-hsiu, Taipei Times
The downward trend has been correlated to births since 2010, it said, adding that policy interventions and the belief in certain Chinese zodiac signs have affected the birthrate in some years.
Many couples avoid giving birth in the Year of the Tiger, which fell on 2010 and is to occur again next year, the report said.
In 2010, 215,000 students enrolled in elementary schools, which fell to 175,000 the following year, it said.
The figure rose in 2018 to 214,000 due to a spike in births in 2012, which the report attributed to government policies and the Year of the Dragon, it said.
These policies have since maintained enrollment at elementary schools at more than 20,000 students, it added.
However, first-year enrollment at elementary schools is expected to fall next year, while the rate of decline for the 26-year period is projected to be 29.6 percent, it said.
Over the next 16 years, enrollment at junior-high schools is forecast to decline by 8,200 students, or 1.5 percent per year, it said.
The figure includes an annual loss of 2,100 first-year students and 3,400 graduating students, it said.
Enrollment at high schools and vocational schools is to decline by 9,700, or 1.7 percent per year, including an annual loss of 3,000 first-year students and 3,600 graduating students, it said.
The overall population of vocational and high-school students would fall to 500,000 students in 2036, it said.
Universities would have 11,000 fewer students each year starting next year, and the student population would fall to 828,000 in 2036, the report added.
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source