The government yesterday raised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.05 percent, from the 1.92 percent it predicted three months earlier, as growth in the first quarter was better than expected and the momentum is likely to extend throughout this year.
The revision came after the economy expanded 2.6 percent during the January-to-March period, 0.04 percentage points higher than the preliminary tally last month, thanks to robust private investment, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said.
“We expect private consumption to grow faster, aided by a stable job market and rallies on the local bourse,” DGBAS Minister Chu Tzer-ming (朱澤民) told a news conference.
Photo: Cheng Chi-fang, Taipei Times
The unemployment rate last month dropped to the lowest level in 23 months and monthly take-home wages rose to a record high in the first quarter, Chu said.
Daily turnover in the stock market during the same period rose 8.62 percent from a year earlier and the number of outbound tourists rose 6.58 percent annually, the DGBAS report showed.
The findings suggested rising confidence on the part of consumers, although the pace remains moderate due to a limited wage increase, Department of Statistics Director-General Yeh Maan-tzwu (葉滿足) said.
The global economy is to lend further support to the nation’s exports, which are forecast to grow 8.57 percent this year, compared with the previous estimate of 8.5 percent, Yeh said.
The DGBAS trimmed its export growth forecast for this quarter, but upgraded the estimate for the third and fourth quarters on reports that Apple Inc might delay the launch of its new iPhone models due to a technology bottleneck.
Scores of Taiwanese firms supply critical components to the smartphone maker.
The outlook has improved, but the local currency’s ongoing appreciation might soften the GDP showing in New Taiwan dollar-denominated terms, Chu said, adding that each NT$1 appreciation in the local currency knocks 0.01 percentage points off GDP growth and 0.2 percentage points off inflation.
The NT dollar has risen 7 percent against the US dollar this year so far, making it the second-best performing currency after the South Korean won, and substantially eroding profits of exporters and life insurance companies with assets denominated in US dollars.
Despite the upward GDP revision, Chu said he is cautious about the economy, which has advanced at a milder pace than the global economy and global trade.
“The low comparison base last year accounted for much of the growth in the first quarter and the effect is set to ease during the year,” Chu said.
GDP growth is expected to ease to 2.14 percent this quarter, 1.87 percent next quarter and 1.66 percent in the final quarter, the report said.
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