President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said late Wednesday night he would organize a "cross-party alliance for national stability (跨黨派國家安定聯盟)" after the Dec. 1 elections.
Local political observers think the president's proposal is meant to link a possible realignment of political parties after the election with the formation of a coalition government. The result, they say, could be a two-party political structure consisting of a "presidential party" and a "non-presidential alliance."
"Obviously the president thinks that the DPP's campaign has been going well, but has not succeeded in securing a decisive advantage over the KMT," said Julian Kuo (
"And there is still major policy dissent within the KMT, so the president has revised his previous statement on party-to-party negotiations for forming a coalition government."
The president told members of the media about his idea late Wednesday night while returning to Taipei from a campaign rally in Ilan.
The alliance would unite "people with common ideals and goals" and would welcome "all political parties or any individual" after the elections.
Sources in the Presidential Office said yesterday that by "individual" the president meant lawmakers from all political parties who share the DPP's ideals and wish to see the government command a stable majority in the legislature.
Kuo said the alliance would amount to a "presidential party."
"After the elections, both the KMT and DPP will have some 80 seats [in the Legislative Yuan.] For the KMT, this will mean another setback after defeat in the presidential election. So if 10 to 15 KMT lawmakers are willing to join the president's alliance, the KMT will have a tough decision to make on whether these people should be expelled," Kuo said.
He said Chen would retain the advantage of being able to dominate political decision making after the elections.
"Opinion polls also indicate that people generally believe that cooperation between the KMT and DPP will serve to stabilize the political situation, which is greatly preferable to continued confrontation between the KMT, PFP, New Party and the ruling party," Kuo said.
"With the DPP's seats, plus around 10 TSU seats as well as independent lawmakers, all it will take is 10 to 15 KMT lawmakers [to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan]. This should not be very difficult."
The opposition parties have obstructed many of the president's initiatives in the Legislative Yuan, which the KMT says should have the last say in naming ministers to the Cabinet.
The Presidential Office source said that, "Given the fierce attacks and criticism by the leaders of all political parties during the campaign ... it has become increasingly unlikely that party-to-party negotiations on the formation of a coalition government after the elections will be successful."
"The president can therefore only stabilize the political situation by pushing for a realignment of political parties based on policies and ideals and the formation of a two-party system."
According to the president, the proposed alliance will seek changes in four major policy areas: cutting the number of seats in the Legislative Yuan, the upholding of Taiwan's sovereignty, granting benefits and stipends to the elderly, and the implementation of the 322 resolutions that were reached by the Economic Development Advisory Conference.
"In the future, the alliance will be consulted before vital policies are made, and on the nomination of the premier and Cabinet members," the president said.
He said he was still considering the modus operandi and rights and obligations of the alliance and that one option was to draft common guidelines that all alliance members would be asked to sign.
PFP spokesman Hsieh Kung-ping (
He said that the president had therefore put forward a model outside the existing constitutional mechanism to neutralize and absorb his opponents.
"In his 18 months in office, the president has come up with quite a few examples of `cross-party cooperation,' but only ended up with the opposition parties' increasing distrust of the DPP government," Hsieh said.
"The president is trying to accumulate more power, but the opposition camp will also strengthen its integration and solidarity," he said.
"The likely scenario will be that members of the alliance will still bargain [for their interests] on a case-by-case basis, and the political situation will not necessarily be stable."
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