Though many military analysts say it will be years before China has the capability to successfully launch an assault against Taiwan, a invasion attempt could come far earlier than most observers believe.
That's the conclusion of a new article in a leading US military journal published yesterday. What's more, the attack could include a surprise missile blitz to "decapitate" Taiwan's military before Chinese troops are sent to occupy the island.
"Storm clouds are gathering in Asia, and war over the Taiwan Strait could come sooner rather than later," writes Richard Russell, a professor at the National Defense University, in the current issue of Parameters, the US Army War College's quarterly publication.
The aim, Russell says, would be to pre-empt the strengthening of Taiwan's defenses with US help and to counter what Beijing sees as "the steady march of Taiwan toward ... independence."
Beijing "probably has concluded" that Washington would come to Taiwan's aid in any cross-strait conflict -- especially after US President George W. Bush's commitment in April to do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan, he says.
"Beijing probably would conclude that it had more vital interests at stake in the conflict than the US, and would be more willing to run ... risks in settling the conflict once and for all," Russell says.
China would use surprise and deception to carry out the attack, Russell argues. Preparation for the attack could be disguised as a routine annual military exercise.
"The Chinese could seek to lull the Taiwanese and the Americans into a sense of political security ... [by engaging] in a steady stream of diplomatic activity to portray an image of satisfaction with the status quo," Russell writes.
"The Chinese could surround cross-strait visits and talks with great fanfare and publicly claim that these endeavors herald a new foundation for cross-strait relations.
"In such a political atmosphere, the `routine' exercising of Chinese naval assets and increased air, air defense and ground-force activity might attract no exceptional attention. ... However, these military exercises would represent the movement of the Chinese military to a wartime footing and the foundation for a massive military assault on Taiwan," he says.
The assault would start with a massive "bolt out of the blue" attack by hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles on key civilian and military targets -- especially the military's command, control, computer and intelligence system.
A handful of the missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads to "magnify the psychological blow," while other missiles aimed at Taiwan's air defenses and missile defense sites could be armed with chemical weapons to incapacitate those sites, allowing China's airborne troops to seize the air bases.
Amphibious attacks would serve as a diversion to shield the airlift of troops into Taiwan, Russell says.
While China's military might not be on the same footing with Taiwan's technologically, the sheer number of soldiers Beijing could mobilize would overwhelm Taiwan's forces, he says.
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