Chinese and WTO negotiators will begin a fresh round of discussions today in Geneva where trade officials believe there is a good chance the finishing touches will be put on Beijing's 15-year bid to join the international trade body.
A decision to let China join the WTO would also pave the way for Taiwan's entry, which, despite Beijing's reticence, Taiwan's government and trade officials hope will lead to closer ties across the Taiwan Strait.
The working group that is negotiating the terms of China's entry will meet until Friday. It hopes to iron out the remaining obstacles to China's accession, including a disagreement between the US and the EU over the future level of Chinese ownership in insurance companies. Another area in need of more negotiations is that of tariff-rate quotas, said Pierre-Louis Girard, chairman of the WTO working group.
A Europe-based trade official who requested anonymity told the Taipei Times by phone over the weekend that, "By Friday this week we will know whether we will be having a decision at [the WTO meeting in Doha, Qatar] or whether the working party will have finished and the ministers will be saying that the work is all done and the terms and conditions of entry are known."
After that, "It's just a question of getting the rubber stamps out ... in the next month or so," he said.
If the process runs smoothly, another meeting of the working party could take place in September to help clear the way for WTO countries to ratify the membership package before the Doha meeting, scheduled for November.
A decision at Doha would effectively clear the way for China to enter the WTO sometime in early 2002, he said.
Senior Taiwan officials have repeatedly stated they believe entry for China -- and subsequently Taiwan, whose bid is linked to Beijing's -- will provide a forum for discussions on cross-strait issues.
Taiwan officials are hoping that requests for bilateral discussions on trade issues such as tourism and transport links under the WTO banner will have to be accepted, sidestepping the Beijing demand of talks only under the "one China" principle.
But Chinese officials have been quoted in pro-Beijing media as rebuffing this hope, saying instead only established channels can be used to discuss ties.
While admitting that WTO entry will "generally help" promote ties, the trade official said that it cannot force any two members to the negotiating table unless it is taken to the arbitration table; an option neither side will likely exercise.
The WTO "doesn't hold a gun to anybody's head. Nobody is being dictated to on the basis of the commitments they have had to undertake to join the WTO. It provides an opportunity for both of them rather than a blunt instrument," the European trade official said.
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