The fallen leader, idol of the poor masses, isn't running. Neither is his replacement, a daughter of privilege. But tomorrow's elections have become a tug-of-war between the two, with the loyalties of an uneasy populace at stake.
While more than 17,000 local and congressional officials will be decided in the Philippines' midterm balloting, the main battle looms for control of the Senate between President Gloria Arroyo's People Power Coalition and jailed Joseph Estrada's Struggle of the Democratic Filipinos-Force of the Masses.
Unlike the House of Representatives, chosen in congressional districts, the top 13 finishers nationwide among 37 candidates will gain six-year terms in the 24-seat Senate, making that race a better gauge of how much pull Estrada has retained despite corruption allegations.
PHOTO: AFP
"It is a war between Arroyo and Estrada precisely because both sides are also directing the electorate toward that kind of polarization," political science analyst Amado Mendoza said. "One side is pushing for 13-0 and the other is campaigning for 0-13."
The election shapes up as one of the hottest in the country's history, coming in the wake of polarizing political upheavals: the massive protests that forced the 64-year-old Estrada to step down on Jan. 20 and the May 1 assault on the presidential palace by 50,000 Estrada supporters.
Estrada's loyalists have demanded his reinstatement despite Supreme Court decisions stripping him of the presidency and immunity from criminal prosecution. The court also declared Arroyo, who was Estrada's vice president, the legitimate new leader after he stepped down. She will serve the remainder of his term until 2004.
Estrada, a former film star who often played underdog heroes popular among the poor, was indicted last month for allegedly amassing US$82 million in bribes and kickbacks during 31 months in office. Facing a non-bailable offense punishable by death, he is being held in an air-conditioned house inside a police camp south of Manila.
Mendoza said the election will be a referendum on two "competing presidencies separated by distinct class lines."
The anti-Estrada protests in January, similar to the "people power" revolt that toppled late dictator Ferdinand Marcos 15 years ago, were triggered by middle-class resentment of Estrada's "style of governance -- corrupt, cronyistic, a throwback to the past," Mendoza said.
He said Estrada's style did not inspire much-needed investor confidence in the country of 76 million people, which slipped after a stock-market scandal involving a presidential friend in 1999.
"These were concerns of the middle classes, but these concerns were not shared by the under-classes. What do they care if the market index fluctuates? Their bottom line is jobs and prices," he said.
Although the poor did not get any richer under Estrada, he was able to maintain his support by nurturing his movie image.
Joining the election fray is Estrada's wife, Luisa "Loi" Ejercito, a 70-year-old political neophyte who had stayed in the background when her husband was in power, performing medical missions in poor communities around the country.
She announced in February she will run for Senate on the opposition ticket to continue Estrada's pro-poor programs and vindicate his name.
When Estrada and his family left the palace, his wife appeared to be the only person genuinely relieved at leaving the seat of government.
In a country where imagery and symbols are at least as important as substance, she came to symbolize the jailed leader's struggle against Arroyo's administration.
"She is the wife who maintained loyalty despite the philandering of the husband. It is just like the movies," Mendoza said, referring to Estrada's admission of relationships with other women. "The imagery is of a noble martyr. That will sell at the box office."
However, surveys indicate Estrada's popularity has not rubbed off much. His wife barely made the top 13 in the latest poll by the independent Social Weather Stations. The survey indicated the administration coalition will capture eight of the 13 available seats.
If that prediction bears out, that would give the administration control of only half the Senate. Most measures are passed by simple majority votes. Even then, many times in the past, senators have not voted along party lines or affiliations and it is common for them to support administration measures.
A setback for Arroyo-backed candidates could spell trouble for her government as the 54-year-old daughter of a former president tries to demonstrate leadership in improving quality of life to boost her bid for her own six-year presidential term in 2004.
Some analysts say an opposition majority in congress could block passage of crucial measures needed to spur the economy. Others downplay that prospect.
"In the scheme of things, there are very few `must have' bills out there, so that if congress were to remain uncooperative for all these years, it wouldn't paralyze government," said Bill Luz, executive director of the influential Makati Business Club.
Luz said the only crucial measure is a power reform law aimed at preventing crippling outages.
He said, however, that a strong opposition could block Cabinet appointments, which could hamper project implementation.
He said foreign investors are watching the election "with a bit of curiosity and a bit of concern."
"I think the paramount importance is that it runs smoothly, meaning it's not going to be fraud-laden, because when it's fraud-laden then the results become suspect," he said.
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