A secret arrangement reached between US President Bill Clinton and powerful chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Jesse Helms could soon devastate the fragile relations between the US and China, the latest issue of the The Far Eastern Economic Review reported yesterday.
According to the 1990 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), if China sold M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan, severe economic sanctions against it are mandatory. A declassified US intelligence report from last year is said to unequivocally state that over 10 years ago, the transfer of full M-11 missiles from China to Pakistan did indeed take place.
According to the Review, Helms and Clinton struck a deal late last year that, in exchange for Helms' backing for the nomination of Assistant Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation Affairs Robert Einhorn, the administration promised to form a task force to determine whether sanctions were warranted. The task force's six month deadline reportedly expires either this month or next.
The US intelligence community and Senator Helms reportedly favor imposing sanctions. Intelligence officials have long complained that the State Department has willfully ignored imposing the sanctions when it has been politically expedient to do so, undermining the law's credibility by failing to acknowledge overwhelming evidence that would call for stronger sanctions.
"The CIA concluded a long time ago that these transfers took place," said Gordon Oehler, former director of the CIA's Non-Proliferation Center. "The interesting question is why this time did it get into the declassified report?"
US and Chinese officials have been working feverishly since March to come up with a solution that would give the Clinton administration the political cover that it needs to waive the sanctions on the basis of national security. According the Review, technical talks between the two sides were scheduled for this week. Neither government has publicly acknowledged the meetings.
Under the MTCR, the sanctions would be potent. One amendment that was aimed specifically at China stipulates "all activities of that government affecting the development of production of electronics, space systems, or equipment, and military aircraft."
In plain terms, this would prevent US satellite makers from launching satellites on Chinese rockets for at least two years.
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