Taiwan is today going to participate in a world-first experiment in democracy. Twenty-four Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers will face a recall vote, with the results determining if they keep their jobs.
Some recalls look safe for the incumbents, other lawmakers appear heading for a fall and many could go either way. Predictions on the outcome vary widely, which is unsurprising — this is the first time worldwide a mass recall has ever been attempted at the national level.
Even meteorologists are unclear what will happen. As this paper reported, the interactions between tropical storms Francisco and Com-May could lead to unpredictable weather, and the Central Weather Bureau is closely monitoring for potential risks to Taiwan.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
That describes the political situation perfectly.
Only one-quarter of the electorate has to vote “agree” to recall an incumbent, and their votes must outnumber the “disagree” votes. This is a war between the political bases of both sides, with voter turnout being the decisive factor.
In analyzing the potential for recall campaigns’ success, I am rating them at “high,” “medium” or “low” risk.
Though reports vary, the KMT believes six seats are at risk, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 12, and some recall campaigners put that as high as 14.
Not knowing the situation on the ground in each district makes predictions difficult, but my estimates put nine seats at “high” risk, eight at “medium” and seven at “low” risk.
Here are some of the races to watch closely.
FU KUN-CHI
By far the biggest fish is the “King of Hualien,” Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁). As the KMT caucus convener, Fu has been the combative face of the KMT-Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) bloc controlling the legislature. For more, see “How the KMT’s whip became Bluebird enemy number one” (July 19, page 12).
The recall campaigns passionately want to not just oust Fu, they want to crush him and all he represents. Despite strategically there being easier lawmakers to recall to potentially tip the balance of power in the legislature, resources and volunteer campaigners are flooding in from around the country.
This concentration of national and local attention puts this recall in the “medium” category, but the number of variables in this race suggests it could go in all sorts of directions.
A big question is whether all the volunteers pouring in will help or hurt the recall. Will their enthusiasm boost turnout, or will they be viewed resentfully as outsiders arrogantly telling them what to do? Or a bit of both?
Indications suggest they may be a benefit. In the second stage of the recall, in spite of obstacles, they gathered 169 percent of the signatures needed to pass the minimum threshold, one of the highest results in the country.
Worse for Fu, there is a pan-blue movement supporting the recall campaign headed by former KMT, now-independent county council speaker Chang Chun (張峻). His campaign features images of former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) and calls for Fu’s recall to “restore trust in the KMT.”
However, Fu is a powerful factional politician with extensive influence over key voting blocs, including irrigation and agricultural associations. The big question is will they rally to his call, or will they tacitly side with his opponents and stay home?
If he is recalled, that opens up the possibility of a pan-blue split if he chooses to run an ally and his local factional opponents — smelling blood in the water — run a candidate of their own in the byelection. A pan-blue split in 2016 handed the legislative election to current Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴).
HSU CHIAO-HSIN
The recall against Taipei District 7 lawmaker Hsu Chiao-hsin (徐巧芯) will likely be the second most watched. She describes herself as “evil” and “vicious” when dealing with her opponents, and her antics make her a press favorite.
This has made her deeply controversial, and I rate the chances of her being recalled as “high.” The recall campaign against her submitted a record 178 percent of the signatures needed to put her on the recall ballot.
The low threshold needed for recall could spell her downfall (see “Hsu Chiao-hsin’s Achilles’ heel” July 12, page 12). Her dramatic and controversial flair helps in general elections, but also highly motivates those who loathe her to show up to vote.
If she is recalled, it will be a symbolic victory and a warning to other politicians considering copying her style, but it likely will not be a major strategic victory. I rate the chances of her being replaced by a non-KMT candidate “low” or “volatile.” This is a traditionally blue district, but appears to have an influx of new green voters and a history of third-party candidates gaining strong support, potentially skewing the byelection in unexpected directions.
LO CHIH-CHIANG
On paper, Lo Chih-chiang (羅智強) should be in the “low” risk category. His Taipei district is traditionally so deep blue they voted for Lin Yang-kang (林洋港) in the 1996 presidential election.
Though he has a talent for self-promotion, his preening ambition has made him many enemies — including within the KMT. Though he is not in the “high” risk category, I put him in the “medium” risk category because the number of signatures signed against him was high, and 45 percent of the electorate voted for Miao Poya (苗博雅) of the Social Democratic Party in the last election — so an upset is within the realm of possibility.
For more insights on Lo, Jenna Lynn Cody lives in his district and has posted some insightful pieces on her blog Lao Ren Cha.
TING HSUEH-CHUNG
The Yunlin 1 race is the only one south of the Jhuoshuei River (濁水溪). It is a curious district, in presidential races it is deep green, but locally there is a fierce battle between the Chang Clan local KMT patronage faction and the DPP’s powerful Su Chih-fen (蘇治芬).
The Chang Clan is the most powerful KMT faction in the country and has four legislators associated with it, including legislative speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜). Only Ting Hsueh-chung (丁學忠) is up for recall.
I assess that he is at “medium” risk for being recalled, but if he is, the chances the KMT loses the by-election are high.
HUANG CHIEN-PIN
Huang Chien-pin’s (黃建賓) Taitung district is a mirror opposite of Yunlin 1. In presidential elections, it is deep blue, but often sends DPP representatives to the legislature.
The pan-green vote last year was split, and Huang squeaked in with only 35 percent support. Everyone agrees he is at high risk of being recalled, and the DPP has a high chance of winning the byelection.
OTHERS
This list is a little different than what the press is focusing on, though Fu and Hsu are on everyone’s list. If Lo, Ting and Huang are ousted, it will have wider implications than if, as expected, Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇), Yeh Yuan-Chih (葉元之) and Lo Ting-wei (羅廷瑋) are.
The Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆) recall in Taipei 8 is an interesting test of a non-controversial lawmaker with a loyal base that has been voting for him since the 1990s versus animated recall campaigners.
Poor weather could benefit the more motivated recall campaigners, and — as if on cue — some Chinese picked the eve of the recalls to harass young Taiwanese athletes in Germany.
Their ugly behavior made KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) “very, very angry,” and I have no doubt he was as upset and appalled as everyone in Taiwan, but it is possible one of those “verys” was for underscoring the recall campaign’s point on the threat China poses.
If interested, I will be on the panel at TaiwanPlus News live at 5pm, as the results come in.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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