China’s biggest week of the year for movie-goers is packed with at least 12 new releases — all in the local language — a sign that Hollywood studios are headed for another challenging year in their No. 1 overseas market.
The lineup of potential Lunar New Year blockbusters from Jan. 24 to Jan. 30 is drawing even more attention than usual because China is set to overtake the US as the world’s largest movie market this year. The milestone is important as well for US filmmakers that have come to rely on revenue from China to backstop big-budget “tentpoles,” films made to be big earners to offset the financial riskiness of a studio’s other titles.
“Chinese and American audiences are tired of these tentpole movies,” said Beijing-born Jean Su, a producer and co-founder of Broadvision Pictures, a Los Angeles-based independent film and TV studio that focuses on movies for global audiences including North America and China. She said some recent tentpoles haven’t done well in the US and may not get the box office they expected in China, either.
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons
The rising dominance of Chinese blockbusters is in line with a broader shift toward local goods as a trade war with the US stokes nationalism. Older American franchise films like Fast & Furious and Transformers, that used to offset mediocre box-office sales in the US with big China receipts, have seen their share of China’s estimated US$29 billion movie market dwindle.
HOLIDAY MENU
At the same time, some of China’s franchises are seen as on the rise.
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons
Detective Chinatown 3 and Lost in Russia, installments of two of China’s most commercially successful comedies, are among the films forecast to do well over the holiday. Leap, based on the true story of the Chinese women’s volleyball team, is another potential blockbuster amid rising interest in nationalistic themes.
While China’s filmgoers are becoming choosier, especially when it comes to Hollywood movies, there’s still a big Chinese audience for great work from the US, said Gary Michael Walters, chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based Bold Films, which produced films such as Whiplash and Nightcrawler.
Overall box-office sales increased by 4.1 percent in China last year, while the slice accounted for by Hollywood titles fell to about 36 percent, the lowest since at least 2011, according to data from Maoyan Entertainment.
Even if Hollywood’s market share in China drops for another year, US films will probably show a net gain in revenue from the country, given broader growth in the market, predicts Walters.
AMERICAN SUCCESSES
There were some successes last year among US films in China.
Disney’s Marvel franchise Avengers: End Game had US$614 million in gross box-office last year in China, enough to make it the year’s third-biggest film there, according to IMDb.
A gain this year in China would have to come without the likes of an Avengers: End Game, which did especially well as a popular franchise that tied up themes built up over years.
The first likely hit in China from Hollywood this year may be Mulan. Walt Disney’s US$150 million live-action feature starring Liu Yifei (劉亦菲), Donnie Yen (甄子丹) and Jet Li (李連杰) is scheduled for a March 27 China release, according to IMDb.
Some film studio shares have benefited from the second-half surge in China’s box-office last year. Beijing Enlight Media, the film company behind last year’s highest grossing movie in China, Ne Zha, gained 55 percent last year, the biggest annual surge since 2015. The stock rose as much as 1.7 percent in early Shenzhen trading Wednesday.
On the schedule for the Lunar New Year: The Rescue, a maritime disaster thriller directed by one of China’s most successful action movie directors Dante Lam (林超賢) and shot by Oscar-winning cinematographer Peter Pau (鮑德熹). Such action themes have been popular in China, with the Lam-directed Operation Red Sea, as the top-grossing film in 2018 and Wolf Warrior 2, reaching the all-time No. 1 box-office ranking.
Jiang Ziya: Legend of Deification, an animation based on an ancient Chinese legend, is ranked as the second-most anticipated film on the holiday schedule in a poll conducted by Maoyan. The most was Detective Chinatown 3.
“In the past, people wondered what would be the all-time highest sales if all of the top grossers were released during the same season,” said Liu Zhenfei, data analyst at China’s largest online ticketing platform Maoyan Entertainment. “This year, the Lunar New Year season is that kind of matchup, with what will probably be the best-of-the-best-selling films in one week.”
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