Fri, May 29, 2026 page8

• Sidelining Taiwan is not a fix

  • By Sana Hashmi 胡莎娜
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  President William Lai (賴清德) has stated that “Taiwanese have the right to engage with the world.” That is a basic principle and should not be controversial. Yet in past years, Taiwan’s routine international engagement has been framed as provocative, a representation that is misleading and analytically weak.

  Taiwan exists as a political, economic and social reality, as do its 23 million people. Treating its external interactions as inherently destabilizing misplaces the burden of escalation and casts Taiwan as the source of provocation, shifting attention away from coercive behavior and onto ordinary diplomatic practice.

  This dynamic was evident in the controversy surrounding Lai’s planned visit to the Kingdom of Eswatini. What should have been a routine state visit was treated as contentious, leading Taiwan to adjust the timing and format of the trip. Such reactions turn normal diplomatic engagement into perceived provocation.

  Questions were also raised about Eswatini’s governance, an issue largely irrelevant to Taiwan’s right to maintain diplomatic ties. Losing another ally would further shrink Taiwan’s international space and risk demoralizing domestic audiences.

  That line of argument is unconvincing, given China’s sustained efforts to reduce Taiwan’s diplomatic partners and restrict its international space. It also reflects a broader trend in which values-based democratic foreign policy is becoming subordinate to strategic and economic considerations.

  More importantly, such discourse contributes to Taiwan’s marginalization rather than preventing crisis. Marginalization risks exacerbating instability rather than containing it.

  The narrative surrounding Taiwan, its leadership and domestic politics is further complicated by attempts to define Lai primarily through his past political positions. Beijing frequently invokes this history to frame Taiwan’s leadership as inherently separatist, shaping international perceptions in the process. However, missing from this interpretation is Taiwan’s political reality: there is a broad and consistent public preference for maintaining the “status quo.”

  Regardless of individual ideological leanings, Taiwan’s elected leaders operate within democratic constraints. Lai is no exception. Simplistic portrayals of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as uniformly pro-independence overlook nuance and obscure the moderating influence of the electorate.

  From Beijing’s perspective, its narrative serves a clear strategic function: It delegitimizes Taiwan’s international presence while reinforcing the notion that the status of its population remains unsettled and open to negotiation. Since 2016, and more intensively following then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China has normalized “gray zone” tactics. These actions have shifted perceptions, portraying Taiwan as the provocateur and China’s coercive behavior as reactive. In effect, Taiwan’s existence is treated as a provocation.

  This inversion is flawed and destabilizing for the region. Taiwan is also not China’s only point of friction, as Beijing remains engaged in multiple disputes across the Indo-Pacific.

  In this context, the most viable path forward is resisting coercion, with deterrence the imperative. Too often, debate focuses on responses to a Taiwan contingency; however, the priority should be preventing such a contingency. A conflict across the Taiwan Strait must be prevented not only for Taiwan’s security, but also for regional stability and global economic continuity. The consequences would extend far beyond East Asia.

  However, effective deterrence would not be achieved by constraining Taiwan’s international engagement or accepting narratives that delegitimize its participation in global affairs. It requires consistent, credible signaling that escalating “gray zone” activities and eventual use of force would carry severe costs.

  Precedent suggests accommodation under sustained coercion rarely produces durable stability. In China’s case, this risk is particularly acute. What is crucial for deterrence is setting the narrative and record straight — Taiwan is not a provocateur, and China’s assertive posture is destabilizing for the Indo-Pacific region.

  Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and an advisory council member of the Alliance for Global Security.
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