As British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s unhappy reign enters its endgame, he makes one point that is worth hearing: Britain cannot return to the constant psychodrama of previous Tory governments that landed us with former British prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as prime ministers. Whoever replaces No. 10’s current inhabitant must be a credible figure capable of navigating the violent economic and political seas buffeting the country. That means the contest which now looks inevitable cannot be rushed, and should not be a narrow one.
After last week’s disastrous local and regional election results, Starmer’s authority looks shot. With his lawmakers, ministers and even cabinet against him, he is unlikely to survive long. However, the chaos of the last few days and the dark judgment of the bond market would not be resolved by the hasty coronation of another candidate who is not up to the job.
Much would depend on how exactly Starmer exits, and the timetable that emerges for choosing a successor. If he keeps clinging on grimly, daring his ministers to force him out — as with Johnson four years ago — the starting gun could be fired quickly. That would favor Wes Streeting, the ambitious Secretary of State for Health, and to a lesser extent, the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. A contest featuring only this flawed pair would be a disaster.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
Streeting has the charisma and communication skills that Starmer so unfortunately lacks, but coming from the Blairite right of the party, he is unpopular with many in Labour’s tax-and-spend factions. The party’s left-leaning membership has the final say over the choice of leader, except in the event that only one candidate stands, and it is resistant to Streeting’s charms.
As my Bloomberg News colleague Alex Wickham has reported, were Labour to blunder into putting Streeting into Downing Street by default, some colleagues would try to unseat him even before he has had time to unpack his crates.
The health secretary — who was due to hold talks with Starmer on Wednesday — would probably tick the bond-trader’s box because of his avowed fiscal rigor, but what does he offer in policy terms that is substantially different from Starmer?
The current prime minister is blessed with a hefty parliamentary majority and has failed to get his reforms past his large cohort of mutinous soft-left lawmakers. Streeting was also close to Peter Mandelson, the disgraced former UK ambassador to the US, whose foolhardy appointment pushed Starmer to the precipice.
Rayner’s qualifications are severely undermined by a scandal of her own. It is only eight months since she resigned in disgrace after failing to pay full property taxes (an official investigation into her tax affairs has yet to conclude). Though popular in Labour circles, Rayner is a devotee of worker rights and wealth taxes. She is perhaps the candidate markets fear most. The sharp rise in UK borrowing costs that accompanies any dip in Starmer’s fortunes is often driven by the specter of Rayner or her ilk having power.
So Labour needs to broaden the contest. That could well mean keeping Starmer in situ until the popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is able to return to the House of Commons — likely to be a torturous process — or by encouraging any brave hearts in the cabinet to step up.
Burnham would hardly ease investor jitters, largely thanks to an imprudent comment last year that the government should resist “being in hock to the bond markets.” But he’s by far the most popular senior UK politician amongst voters, comfortably ahead of the hard-right upstart Nigel Farage. A longer contest would give the Manchester mayor time to mend relations with the City of London, perhaps by teaming up with a potential chancellor considered fiscally sound.
Rayner has called for Labour’s leadership to allow Burnham’s return to the Commons. Still, his route back is not without peril. His party’s stock has fallen so far that any by-election to secure him a parliamentary seat might not be a sure thing despite his popularity.
For months now, the dynamic keeping Starmer in office has been the flaws — or unavailability — of his potential replacements. That has not changed since last Thursday’s electoral drubbing. One disappointment has been the failure of cabinet big beasts to offer to make a fight of any contest, even though several are eagerly urging Starmer to set a date for his departure.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper might not want a repeat of her bruising loss to the hard-left socialist Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is a solid performer, but many Labourites hate her hardline immigration policies. Pat McFadden, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, and Secretary of State for Defence John Healey are two of the last remaining Starmer loyalists. Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Ed Miliband, already had a less-than-dazzling spell as leader.
Their reasons for holding back are understandable enough. And yet, this is a time of national need. The least Britain can ask for is a more heavyweight bout than Streeting versus Rayner.
Rosa Prince is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering UK politics and policy. She was formerly an editor and writer at Politico and the Daily Telegraph, and is the author of Comrade Corbyn and Theresa May: The Enigmatic Prime Minister. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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