Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte just became the first official there to be impeached twice, but the messy process has arguably only solidified her clout, complicating the political landscape in a country already grappling with a myriad of economic challenges.
The drama-filled vote in the Philippine Congress this week, which included bizarre scenes of one senator with an outstanding arrest warrant dashing through halls, and up and down stairwells to evade authorities, is a pointer to months of turmoil to come.
Duterte is now likely to leverage her twin impeachment as a badge of honor with her supporters in a run for the presidency in 2028. In the meantime, a rift between her and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is a major distraction for policymakers, right as the economy is hit by energy shortages due to the war in the Middle East and a corruption scandal over flood mitigation projects.
“This latest development would be difficult for investors to look through,” Nomura Holdings chief ASEAN economist Euben Paracuelles said. “It likely increases political risks further, adding to existing concerns about credit ratings pressures, governance issues which are clearly weighing heavily on growth and the country’s high exposure to the energy price shock.”
Data last week showed those cracks: The economy grew 2.8 percent last quarter, below estimates and the slowest pace outside the COVID-19 pandemic since the end of 2009, while inflation has shot past 7 percent, way beyond the central bank’s target.
For now, markets are looking past the political noise. While the Philippine peso has weakened and stocks are slightly down, that is mainly due to concerns that a prolonged Middle East conflict could further hurt the oil-dependent economy.
However, the peso was already an underperformer, the worst in Asia since the start of the war, and the feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps might make things worse.
While Duterte was impeached in the lower house, accused of misuse of public funds and threatening to assassinate Marcos, among other charges, her allies have control of the 24-member Senate and can stall proceedings there or vote to acquit her.
Duterte has denied any wrongdoing and says the charges are politically motivated.
The daughter of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, she leads opinion polls as the most popular candidate to succeed Marcos, even if multiple investigations into her and her family have seen her advantage narrow.
She was impeached for the first time in February 2025, but the Phillipine Supreme Court threw out the complaint on procedural grounds.
The deft maneuvering her allies in the Senate, in particular, has created a powerful bloc. On the same day the lower house was voting to impeach her; Sara Duterte-aligned senators made a swift and surprising dash to install her ally Alan Peter Cayetano as Senate leader.
As a result, Marcos’ options are fading, said Joycee Teodoro, Southeast Asia senior analyst at Control Risks.
The president is limited to a single six-year term, so Marcos cannot run again.
“The Senate leadership change showed that the vice president can still rely on enough allies to shield her from intensifying pressure from the Marcos administration,” Teodoro said. “If the case fails there, as now looks likely after the Senate leadership change, Marcos could have lost his best chance to weaken her before 2028.”
Economists say the latest events suggest legislation could move even more slowly through Congress, especially anything related to governance.
“The onus is on the authorities to ensure political noise does not distract from much-needed policy reprioritization to lift economic growth momentum,” Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp economist Lavanya Venkateswaran said.
Among those who tipped the balance in Sara Duterte’s favor are senators who directly or indirectly have been the subjects of investigations by the Marcos administration. Senators Francis Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada and Joel Villanueva have all been implicated in the massive flood control scandal that Marcos exposed. They have all denied wrongdoing.
Also joining the new bloc are senators Mark Villar and Camille Villar, children of tycoon Manuel Villar. His property-holding firm faces a criminal complaint over alleged market manipulation, and he has denied wrongdoing. Senator Loren Legarda, whose son Leandro Leviste is being scrutinized for alleged franchise violations, also flipped to the new majority.
Still, the majority in the Senate can always change again in the country’s swift-moving politics.
Senator Ronald dela Rosa, a Sara Duterte ally, is currently trying to avoid arrest by virtue of an International Criminal Court warrant over his role in a notorious war on drugs during Rodrigo Duterte’s administration.
Charges are also being eyed against senators implicated in the flood graft scandal, which could also lead to their arrests.
Some analysts caution against viewing Marcos as a lame duck.
“For Marcos and his allies, a Sara Duterte presidency would carry serious political and legal risks, so they are unlikely to allow the 2028 race to unfold entirely on her terms,” Teodoro said.
According to BMI country risk analyst Brandon Ong, the strong turnout in the House of Representatives as well as public support for a Senate trial could yet give Marcos some leverage.
“If the Senate overreaches either stonewalling the proceedings or dispensing with a proper trial, Marcos could still use that backlash to weaken Sara’s 2028 presidential bid,” he said. “This is especially relevant as recent polling has suggested that while Sara remains the front-runner, her lead in the 2028 field is dwindling.”
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