Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), during an interview for the podcast Lanshuan Time (蘭萱時間) released on Monday, said that a US professor had said that she deserved to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize following her meeting earlier this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
Cheng’s “journey of peace” has garnered attention from overseas and from within Taiwan. The latest My Formosa poll, conducted last week after the Cheng-Xi meeting, shows that Cheng’s approval rating is 31.5 percent, up 7.6 percentage points compared with the month before.
The same poll showed that 44.5 percent of respondents approved of President William Lai’s (賴清德) performance in office, only 0.7 percent points higher than last month; public trust in Lai had fallen by 0.9 percentage points compared with last month.
It does seem that Cheng’s “journey of peace” is paying dividends for her and the KMT. She has said that people have been asking her whether she feels she should stand for the KMT in the next presidential election.
Before she celebrates, we need to consider who is praising Cheng’s initiative and why. We also need to explore those poll findings.
Lyle Goldstein is the Asia Program director at the Defense Priorities think tank. On social media, he describes himself as an expert on China and Russia. In an article titled “The US Must Beware of Taiwan’s Reckless Leader” — a reference to Lai — published in Time in October last year, he criticizes Lai: the “reckless leader” of the headline.
In the social media post saying Cheng’s should be considered for the Nobel Prize, Goldstein characterized the cross-strait relationship as an unresolved “Chinese civil war” and expressed frustration at a “senior US senator who described Taiwan as a country no less than [three times] — ugh.”
It is clear where Goldstein’s sympathies lie from the framing of Taiwan-China relations.
Goldstein’s position is that he does not believe it worthwhile for the US to get involved in a conflict with China over Taiwan. He wants to protect US lives. That is a reasonable position for a US citizen and academic to take. It is also irrelevant when it comes to Cheng’s position on Taiwan’s relationship with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Her concern should be with the future security and prosperity of the nation.
The poll findings had approval in Cheng at 28.7 percent in January and 23.9 percent last month. An increase from last month of 7.6 percentage points sounds impressive, but this is compared with a dip when she was preparing for the Xi meeting, of which many in Taiwan were suspicious. Compared with the January rating, her approval following the meeting has only risen by a more modest 2.8 percentage points.
Asked whether they thought the Cheng-Xi meeting was helpful for peace, only 37.6 percent of respondents said it was; 51.1 percent said it was not. Only 22.4 percent expressed acceptance of the CCP’s proposed “peaceful reunification” under a “one country, two systems” formula; 68.2 percent said that this would be unacceptable.
More than 70 percent of those who believe that increased cross-strait exchanges are beneficial to Taiwan, who believe that the Cheng-Xi meeting helped prevent conflict, or who accept the CCP’s stance on “peaceful reunification,” expressed distrust in Lai, and more than 71 percent harbor negative views toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Among those who believe that increased cross-strait exchanges would make it easier for China to engage in “united front” tactics, or who believe that the Cheng-Xi meeting does nothing to help deter war, more than 73 percent expressed trust in Lai, and 69 percent hold a favorable view of the DPP.
The poll found that approximately 46 percent of respondents view Cheng as favoring unification.
More than anything, the poll clarifies a trend toward greater polarization on the cross-strait issue.
Another noteworthy aspect of the poll results deals with the local elections later this year. The prevailing wisdom has been that these elections are more about local policy platforms, whereas the presidential and legislative elections concern international and cross-strait issues. According to the poll, that distinction appears to be blurring.
We are going to see how Cheng’s stance on unification and her meeting with Xi play out in November and what that could mean for her potential presidential bid in 2028.
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